Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) is facing an increasingly difficult reelection fight in Georgia just 16 months after his victory in a 2021 runoff election, along with that of fellow Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, appeared to herald a new era in the Peach State.
Polls show Warnock narrowly down in a tight race, and the national political atmosphere has turned against Democrats as President Biden’s approval ratings remain mired in the low 40s amid voter disgruntlement over high gas prices and inflation.
Warnock is widely seen as a strong candidate, focusing on issues important to Georgia Democrats like voting rights and insulin costs while flashing his independence from Biden on issues like immigration, all with the solemnity of a pastor who still preaches at a famed church. But Democrats warn that still may not be enough to save him if an expected GOP wave this year reaches high enough.
“I think he’s done as much as you can do, he’s been as effective as you can be. But I do think that there are some larger dynamics at play,” said Jarrod Loadholt, a partner in the Ice Miller law firm’s public affairs branch who lives in Georgia. “I think every single Democrat that’s running statewide this cycle, particularly in states that are more evenly split, is gonna have to deal with this. Being a great candidate, you need that, but that’s not enough.”
Warnock, who won a January 2021 runoff to complete former Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R) term, shocked skeptics in the erstwhile GOP stronghold and, along with Ossoff, helped Senate Democrats clinch their current wafer-thin majority.
Now in a race for a full term of his own, Warnock finds himself on the front lines of the midterm battleground, holding a seat that could hold the key to controlling the Senate going forward. Warnock is anticipated to run against former football star Herschel Walker in a race that will see millions of dollars spent on the campaign trail to gain even the slightest edge.
Warnock has spent his early tenure at the vanguard of what operatives say are some of the biggest issues for Georgia Democrats, notably as one of the most vocal advocates for expanding access to the ballot. He pressed for a change to the Senate filibuster to pass legislation on the issue, but internal Democratic squabbles quashed the effort.
He’s also backed calls to cancel student loan debt, worked to ease supply issues at the Port of Savannah and is now at the heart of a push to lower the cost of insulin. And in a nod to the expansive military presence in Georgia, Warnock has voiced support for beefed-up Pentagon funding in President Biden’s budget.
Most recently, Warnock came out against the Biden administration’s decision to rescind a rule allowing authorities to swiftly expel migrants at the border to prevent the spread of COVID-19 due to questions over how people would now be processed.
Washington observers eager to define candidates as either moderate or progressive have been frustrated by such stances. But defenders say the fact that Warnock cannot be put neatly into an ideological box is a byproduct of his focus on Georgians.
“I think he’s been able to really block out the noise and focus on the lyrics that have come from the people of Georgia and their priorities. You can’t label him as a progressive or as a moderate. You just have to label him as a senator for Georgia,” said Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright.
With Walker, Warnock is likely running against a candidate who holds personal baggage. The Republican has faced allegations of domestic abuse from his ex-wife and questions over business practices, which hasn’t stopped him from consolidating GOP support but hands Democrats possible lines of attack.
“When you run for political office, it’s all on the table,” said one Georgia Democratic strategist.
Still, Warnock is expected to run into a nightmare of a political environment that observers on both sides of the aisle say hands Republicans an early edge.
“I will say it should be advantage Warnock if it were based on his record, but it’s going to be a tough race,” the Democratic strategist said.
Warnock, like most Democrats, is expected to be swimming upstream over widespread dissatisfaction on inflation, COVID-19 and more. He’s also running in a narrowly divided state where it wouldn’t take a massive wave to hand one party an advantage.
That’s left Walker with an early polling edge. One survey from The Hill and Emerson College released Wednesday showed Walker with a lead just outside its margin of error.
The current environment marks a contrast from Warnock’s previous victory, when a wave of Democratic enthusiasm against former President Trump and his repeated claims of voter fraud helped depress GOP turnout enough to help Warnock win.
“He was a beneficiary of gravity and he’s gonna be a victim of gravity,” said Georgia-based GOP strategist Chip Lake. “What the last election cycle showed is that we have the ability to be a purple state … but he’s just running into a more challenging environment, and I think that’s going to be his Achilles heel.”
Warnock is also facing uncertainty over the impact of a voting bill Georgia passed that restricts access to the ballot, which Democrats warn could potentially dampen turnout among key constituencies.
“It’s difficult to just talk about the horse race without talking about this huge thing that’s happening that’s going to fundamentally change how Georgians vote,” said New Georgia Project head Nsé Ufot, who praised Warnock as an “extraordinary candidate.”
To offset the GOP’s edge, Warnock will have to juice turnout as much as he can.
Such a task may be daunting in a midterm year like this, but Warnock will likely be sharing the ballot with Stacey Abrams, the prominent activist and gubernatorial candidate, who Democrats hope could get turnout somewhat near 2020 levels.
“That’s gonna be hard to match,” Loadholt said, referring to 2020. “I think it obviously remains to be seen. But look, if there is a gubernatorial candidate that could help spark that enthusiasm, it’s Stacey Abrams. If there is a Senate candidate that could spark that kind of enthusiasm, I think it’s Raphael Warnock.”
Warnock has also proven to be an effective campaigner in his own right, fending off GOP efforts to tie him to the broader Democratic Party in 2020 with an effective ad blitz, including one widely lauded video saying Republicans would say he “hates puppies.”
That kind of effort could be doubly important this time around with a Democrat in the White House to peg Warnock to.
“His ad team did a really excellent job by using humor to help dispel and to point out how absurd some of the attacks on him were,” the Georgia Democratic strategist said. “For Sen. Warnock and Democrats writ large, Democrats have to take disinformation campaigns extremely seriously.”
To be sure, Democrats insist they have the right candidate in the race in terms of policy and campaign acumen, and conventional wisdom suggested in 2020 that Warnock and Ossoff would struggle in runoffs. But they still recognize Warnock is in the fight of his political life.
“I’m a progressive who lives in Georgia,” Ufot said, “and being right and having good ideas and running a good campaign is never enough.”