Donald Trump scored a victory Tuesday night in Ohio, where GOP Senate nominee J.D. Vance won the Republican primary largely on the back of the former president’s support.
The nominating contest, which was widely viewed as a test of Trump’s power, marked an early win in his effort to solidify his status as a Republican kingmaker now that he’s out of office and the 2022 primaries are underway in full force.
Should Trump enjoy more successes after Vance’s win, his power within the Republican Party will only swell — a big boost for him as he mulls running again for the White House in 2024. But if other endorsees struggle and Vance is a one-off, it could hurt Trump’s brand with grassroots voters.
Here are five primaries where Trump’s endorsement is on the line.
West Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District (May 10)
The next test Trump will face is in West Virginia, where redistricting lumped the former president’s preferred candidate, Rep. Alex Mooney (R), in the same district with Rep. David McKinley (R).
The race represents a battle between the GOP’s two flanks: Mooney is a staunchly conservative member of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus, and McKinley is widely viewed as a traditional conservative.
The race has become personal, with Mooney highlighting McKinley’s votes for a bipartisan infrastructure bill and the formation of a bipartisan committee to investigate the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot. McKinley has shot back by pointing out that Mooney moved from Maryland shortly before his successful 2014 congressional bid.
Trump endorsed Mooney in November, with Mooney specifically saying the support would help propel him to the GOP nomination.
“I am honored to receive President Trump’s endorsement,” Mooney said in a statement at the time. “I am a proud America First conservative and will do whatever I can to carry on the President’s legacy of fighting for election integrity, defeating socialism, and supporting the Second Amendment in Congress. West Virginians are proud Trump Republicans, and I know the President’s endorsement ensures victory.”
Trump held a tele-rally with Mooney on Tuesday, though he has not put much money or other emphasis behind his endorsement besides that.
Meanwhile, McKinley is running on a bring-home-the-bacon message and is being supported by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Manchin is the rare Democrat who is able to get elected in deep Trump country and appeared in a 30-second clip last week saying, “David McKinley is all about us.”
Next week’s contest could serve as a gauge of Trump’s power in less prominent races and how much an endorsement needs to be backed up by subsequent involvement for his endorsees to emerge victorious.
Pennsylvania’s GOP Senate primary (May 17)
Pennsylvania’s Senate GOP primary is another race with a national profile in which Trump has endorsed.
After Sean Parnell, Trump’s original endorsee in the primary, dropped out last year after a lost custody battle, the former president in April endorsed Mehmet Oz, the celebrity cardiothoracic surgeon.
Oz and former hedge fund manager David McCormick are running neck and neck at the top of the polls, and the Trump endorsement has not yet helped Oz break away.
Oz, whom Trump said he endorsed in part because of his familiarity with voters from his longtime talk show, faces a number of attacks from the Republican grassroots, mainly over his recent residence in New Jersey and past stances on issues like abortion and gun rights that run contrary to GOP orthodoxy.
Meanwhile, McCormick, who also lived in Connecticut until recently, is casting himself as the true Pennsylvanian candidate and using much of his personal wealth to blanket the airwaves touting his loyalty to Trump’s agenda.
Trump’s involvement has become the top issue in the primary, with Oz defending his past stances by noting the former president’s endorsement.
“President Trump endorsed me,” Oz said at a primary debate last week. “The first point he made about why is I’m a conservative, America-first Republican.”
Should Oz ultimately lose, Trump could still claim victory by pointing to McCormick’s embrace of his agenda and noting Oz’s past policy heresies. But should he be able to drag Oz over the finish line despite his thin ties to Pennsylvania and once-liberal stances, it would speak volumes about the value voters place on Trump’s support.
North Carolina’s GOP Senate primary (May 17)
Trump endorsed Rep. Ted Budd (R) in a surprise announcement back in June, though Budd did not truly catch fire until recently.
Budd’s main primary rivals are former Gov. Pat McCrory and former Rep. Mark Walker. McCrory is considered more of a traditional Republican, while Walker is more closely aligned with Trump.
McCrory boasted a substantial polling lead for months, leading Trump to try to get Walker to drop out of the race and run for his old House seat instead to consolidate his supporters behind Budd, though Walker rebuffed his request.
However, Budd has benefited from an avalanche of spending by the conservative Club for Growth.
Throughout the race, Budd has tied himself closely to Trump, indicating he views the endorsement as his ticket to the nomination. Meanwhile, McCrory, who entered the race with significantly more name ID from his four years as governor, has said he supports Trump’s policies while not embracing the former president himself.
Should Budd end up winning the primary, Trump would undoubtedly declare victory, though the Club for Growth’s investment is expected to play a massive role in a potential win.
Idaho’s GOP gubernatorial primary (May 17)
Trump inserted himself into Idaho’s bloody GOP gubernatorial primary in November, and his endorsed candidate, Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin, appears to be on her back foot in the race.
Gov. Brad Little and his deputy have been going back and forth for months over the state’s early handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Little, a more traditional conservative, initially refrained from issuing orders barring mask or vaccine mandates. However, the state constitution allows McGeachin to essentially serve as the acting governor if the sitting governor leaves the state, and in May of last year she banned mask mandates and in October banned vaccine mandates.
Both orders were swiftly rescinded upon Little’s return to the state, with the governor accusing McGeachin of “grandstanding.”
Trump, in his November endorsement, called McGeachin a “true supporter” of his movement and said she “will never let you down!”
However, Little has remained in a strong position, holding a 41-point lead over McGeachin in a January poll.
Trump has done little to boost McGeachin beyond his endorsement, an apparent recognition of the stiff headwinds she faces.
Georgia’s GOP gubernatorial primary (May 24)
Trump is possibly most keen on seeing his endorsed candidate win in this month’s Georgia GOP gubernatorial primary — a race at the fore over ongoing controversies about the 2020 election.
Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who first won his seat in 2018 and is running for a second term, drew Trump’s fury when he rebuffed calls to overturn the former president’s loss in the state in 2020.
Trump, in turn, endorsed former Sen. David Perdue (R) to run against Kemp, with Perdue focusing almost exclusively on casting Kemp as a squishy moderate who caved to Democrats two years ago.
Trump has repeated unfounded claims that widespread election fraud cost him his 2020 reelection bid, and Kemp has found himself persona non grata in Trump’s orbit.
However, Kemp continues to hold a yawning lead over Perdue, with a recent poll showing him with a 53-26 advantage over Perdue — a result that, if it holds, would allow Kemp to avoid a runoff.
Such a margin would be an embarrassment for both Perdue and Trump — and the former president is doing whatever he can to make sure it doesn’t happen.
Trump held a rally in March on behalf of Perdue and Herschel Walker, his chosen candidate in Georgia’s Senate race. Trump this week also held a tele-rally for Perdue.
The former president also transferred $500,000 from his leadership PAC to a super PAC devoted to defeating Kemp, a donation that marked Trump’s first major financial involvement in a midterm race.
Besides the election controversies, Kemp boasts a staunchly conservative record and has leaned hard into culture war issues to shore up his right flank, including by expanding gun rights and restricting access to the ballot, setting the primary up to be a test of grassroots voters’ willingness to rebuke a candidate who falls in line with their values on most issues but doesn’t toe Trump’s line on the 2020 election.