Fetterman leads Oz in Pennsylvania Senate race: poll

Democratic Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is leading Republican Mehmet Oz by 6 points in their race for the state’s open Senate seat, according to a new AARP poll. 

The survey’s results show Fetterman with 50 percent support among likely voters to the celebrity physician’s 44 percent. Fetterman also has a slightly smaller lead among likely voters aged 50 and older, 49 percent to 46 percent. 

The lieutenant governor, who suffered a stroke last month, has a significantly higher net favorability rating. He is viewed favorably by 46 percent of voters and unfavorably by 36 percent for a net 10 percent rating. Oz is viewed favorably by 30 percent of voters and unfavorably by 63 percent for a net of negative 33 percent. 

A USA Today Network-Suffolk University poll released last week showed Fetterman with a 9-point lead over Oz.

The race for Senate in Pennsylvania is expected to receive a notable amount of attention, as its outcome could decide which party controls the Senate for the next two years. 

Fetterman and Oz are seeking to replace the retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa).

Oz won the Republican nomination earlier this month after his main opponent, former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, conceded following a recount. 

As in the previous USA Today poll, the governor’s race is tighter in the AARP’s survey.

Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) leads the Republican nominee, state Sen. Doug Mastriano, by 3 points, 49 percent to 46 percent, in the latest poll. Shapiro leads among likely voters aged 50 and older by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent. That puts Shapiro’s lead within the margin of error. 

Shapiro’s net favorability is stronger than Mastriano’s, but the difference is closer than in the Fetterman-Oz race. Shapiro is viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 34 percent. Mastriano is viewed favorably by 37 percent and unfavorably by 44 percent. 

The poll’s analysis points out that although the Democratic nominees are viewed more favorably than their Republican opponents, Democrats are facing a challenging political environment, as President Biden’s approval rating remains near 40 percent. 

The analysis states Republicans hold a two-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. 

Almost 85 percent of respondents said the country is heading on the wrong track, and more than 75 percent said the state is going in the wrong direction. 

Only 30 percent said they felt the economy is working for them, as a plurality of respondents rated rising costs and inflation as the most important issue to them. 

Enthusiasm is high among likely voters for both parties, with 84 percent of Democrats and 87 percent of Republicans saying they are “extremely motivated” to vote for governor and Congress in 2022. 

The AARP poll surveyed 1,382 likely voters from June 12 to June 19. 

It included a statewide representative sample of 500 likely voters, an oversample of 550 likely voters aged 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 328 Black likely voters aged 50 and older. The margin of errors were 4.4 points for the representative sample, 3.3 points for the total sample of 828 older voters and 4.7 points for the total sample of Black older voters.