Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday leading up to November’s election.
Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood (mgreenwood@digital-release.thehill.com), Julia Manchester (jmanchester@digital-release.thehill.com), and Caroline Vakil (cvakil@digital-release.thehill.com).
NY, FL feature among biggest races of the summer
Voters are heading to polls in New York, Florida and Oklahoma to weigh in on a slew of races.
They may only be primaries, but tonight could determine which Democratic committee chair gets to stay in Congress, which Democrat will go head-to-head with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and which Republican will take on former Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Okla.) in Oklahoma’s Senate race — and very likely win.
Seeing double: Confused about why New York is seeing a second primary date? You’re probably not alone.
New York pushed back its congressional primaries into sleepy August because of delays in approving new maps following the decennial redistricting process. That timing could make or break some candidates. Primary voter turnout is already lower than in a midterm general election, and August is when some New Yorkers tend to be away or on vacation.
That’s not the only confusing part: The state is holding two special elections in addition to the primaries.
The special elections will be held under the current district lines. The primaries will be for newly drawn districts. Which means some candidates will be on the ballot on the same day in two different districts for two different elections.
Got all that?
Despite the wonkiness, special elections can give us clues as to how voters are feeling ahead of November. Julia Manchester took a dive into the 19th Congressional District’s special election between Democrat Pat Ryan and Republican Marc Molinaro, which is being watched as a bellwether ahead of the midterms as Ryan seeks to focus on abortion and Molinaro seeks to hone in on the economy.
Other New York races to look out for?
- The 12th Congressional District Democratic primary featuring Reps. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y) and Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.), the chairs of the House Judiciary and House Oversight and Reform committees, respectively, going head-to-head
- The 10th Congressional District Democratic primary, which includes a crowded field of a dozen candidates, including Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), former federal prosecutor Dan Goldman, New York state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou, New York City Council Member Carlina Rivera and former New York City Comptroller Liz Holtzman
- The 17th Congressional District Democratic primary, where the chairman of House Democrats’ campaign arm, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), battles it out with state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi
Over in the Sunshine State: Democrats will determine whether Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) or state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) will be the one to take on DeSantis in November.
But as Max Greenwood writes, the larger, looming question is can Democrats come close to beating the powerhouse Republican in several months? That’s because there’s a few headwinds facing the eventual candidate: DeSantis has an eye-popping war chest and national name recognition. At the same time Democrats seem to have a lack of momentum among Latino voters in the state and there are fewer registered Democrats in the state than Republicans.
But, but, but: The Supreme Court’s decision earlier this summer to overturn Roe v. Wade could be the energy Democrats need to have a shot at the governor’s mansion, though it won’t be without a fight.
“If the Democratic candidates can make Ron DeSantis the poster boy for Republican extremism and what the future of Republican extremism can look like if he’s not defeated, then they can position themselves to win,” Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic pollster, told Max. “If the race is about anything else, it’s going to be very difficult,” Amandi added.
Other Florida primaries to look out for?
- The 7th Congressional District GOP primary: Moderate Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.) said she isn’t seeking reelection and now eight Republicans are going head-to-head for the Republican nod in a seat likely to favor their party.
- The 10th Congressional District Democratic primary: 10 Democrats are vying for the seat after Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.) opted to run for Senate and opened up the seat
- The 13th Congressional District GOP Primary: Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) opened up his seat to run for governor. Enter: Five Republicans seeking the GOP nod, including one with former President Trump’s backing
Over in Oklahoma, the Senate GOP primary runoff will determine which Republican will be battling it out with Horn to fill the remainder of Rep. James Inhofe’s (R-Okla.) term. The race will feature Rep. Markwayne Mullin (Okla.), who was endorsed by Trump, and former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon (R).
Caroline has the full list of nine races we’ll be watching tonight.
Party like it’s 2024?
Move over, Ron DeSantis. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is hitting the national travel circuit too.
Youngkin, who won his office last year in a painful blow to Democrats, is set to head to Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, Oregon and New Mexico in the coming weeks to rally for GOP candidates for governor, one of his political advisers confirmed to The Hill on Tuesday. He’ll also be attending a gala hosted by the Susan B. Anthony List, a prominent anti-abortion group, on Sept. 13 in Washington, D.C.
Youngkin’s newly announced travel schedule comes on the heels of a blitz by DeSantis, who just stumped for Republican Senate nominee J.D. Vance in Ohio and GOP gubernatorial hopeful Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania.
Let’s get this out of the way: There’s nothing unusual about high-profile political figures campaigning for their own party’s candidates in an election year.
But both Youngkin and DeSantis have been repeatedly mentioned as potential contenders for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, so anytime they leave their respective home states for big public appearances, it naturally raises some questions. DeSantis’s case, in particular, is interesting, given that he still has his own reelection campaign to worry about.
And if you think it’s too early to talk about 2024, well, it’s coming up quickly.
Presidential campaigns don’t just come together overnight and prospective candidates are already having conversations about it. Just remember, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) launched an exploratory committee for her 2020 presidential run on New Year’s Eve 2018, less than two months after the midterms.
POLL WATCH
A new poll out by progressive think tank Data for Progress shows Republican Marc Molinaro receiving 53 percent support among likely voters in New York’s 19th Congressional District for the special election there, compared to 45 percent for Democrat Pat Ryan. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
AD WATCH
Sen. Patty Murray’s (D-Wash.) campaign is out with an ad campaign this week slamming GOP Senate contender Tiffany Smiley over her abortion stance. Murray’s campaign announced they were releasing a TV ad and two digital ads hitting her opponent on the issue. While Smiley has said she is anti-abortion, The Seattle Times noted that she would also would not be in favor of advancing a ban on the medical procedure nationwide.
OP-EDS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
- Good news for Democrats continues to build — so now what? By Jessica Tarlov of Bustle Digital Group
- Surely the Democrats have a backup plan to Kamala Harris, By political strategist Douglas MacKinnon
That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you Thursday.