Democrats hold narrow leads in Nevada’s Senate, governor races: poll

Incumbent Democrats hold narrow leads over their Republican challengers in races for Senate and governor in Nevada, according to a poll released Thursday.

The AARP poll found Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) leads former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) by about 4 points in the Senate race, 44 to 40 percent, while Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) leads Sheriff Joe Lombardo (R) by 3 points in the gubernatorial battle, 41 to 38 percent.

Nine percent of respondents were undecided in the Senate race, while 7 percent said they would choose another candidate. In the gubernatorial race, 10 percent were undecided and just as many said they would prefer another candidate.

The poll found even tighter match-ups when the two major-party candidates are polled head-to-head. Cortez Masto leads Laxalt in that poll by 1 point, 48 to 47 percent, while Lombardo leads Sisolak by 2 points, 48 to 46 percent. 

Lombardo owes his lead in that match-up to a more than 30-point advantage among respondents who originally said they supported a third-party candidate or none of the listed candidates. 

The Democrats hold relatively narrow leads among Hispanic voters in the state, a large voting bloc that has leaned Democrat historically but has trended toward Republicans in recent elections. 

Cortez Masto leads Laxalt by 9 points in the full-ballot race and by 7 points in a head-to-head match-up among these voters. Sisolak leads by 9 points in the full-ballot race but only by 2 points in the head-to-head race. 

The AARP noted that voters ages 50 and older are expected to make up a majority of those participating in this year’s elections in the state, and Republicans appear to have an advantage among these voters. 

The two Senate candidates are tied at 44 percent each among older voters in a full-ballot race, while Laxalt leads by 4 points in a head-to-head match-up among that age group. Lombardo leads Sisolak in the gubernatorial race by 1 point among older voters in the full ballot and by 7 points in a head-to-head match-up.

All four candidates have negative net favorability among voters, but Laxalt and Sisolak are viewed somewhat less favorably than their respective challengers. 

Laxalt is viewed favorably by 39 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 47 percent, while Cortez Masto is viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 48 percent. 

Sisolak is viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 53 percent, while Lombardo is viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 46 percent. 

The poll was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research on behalf of AARP among 1,332 likely voters Aug. 16-24. The sample included an oversample of 550 likely voters older than 50 and another oversample of 282 Hispanic voters over the age of 50. 

The margin of error for the overall statewide sample was 4.4 points, while the margin of error for respondents over 50 was 3.4 points. The margin for Hispanic voters over 50 was 4.9 points.