Cook Report shifts three more House races toward Democrats

Nonpartisan election analyst Cook Political Report shifted three House races toward Democrats on Wednesday.

The group changed Rep. David Schweikert’s (R) reelection contest in Arizona’s newly drawn 1st Congressional District from “lean Republican” to “toss up” and Rep. Tom O’Halleran’s (D) race in a neighboring Arizona district from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

Cook Political Report also moved Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D) closely watched race in Texas’s 28th Congressional District from “toss up” to “lean Democrat.”

The rating changes come as Democrats see glimmers of hope in what was expected to be a dismal midterm election for the party. 

Polling has shown Republicans’ lead closing in recent weeks, although Cook Political Report’s ratings still favor the GOP to flip the House.

The analyst rates 212 seats as “lean Republican” or even more strongly in favor of the GOP, compared to 192 such seats for Democrats.

Thirty-one seats remain “toss ups,” meaning Republicans would only need to win a handful of those races to gain a majority, assuming they win all of their favored seats.

Cuellar, a moderate Democrat, narrowly won a heated primary contest against a progressive challenger in June. 

The nine-term congressman is the only anti-abortion Democrat serving in the House, spurring criticisms from progressives that have only grown in the wake of the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade.

In Arizona, Schweikert’s redrawn district went from favoring former President Trump by 4 points to one Biden would have won by 1 point in 2020.

“Americans are tired of MAGA Republican David Schweikert representing Arizona in Congress and are ready for new leadership,” Jevin Hodge, Schweikert’s challenger, wrote on Twitter after the rating shift.

In Arizona’s neighboring 2nd Congressional District, O’Halleran is attempting to win a fourth term to the House.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has spent money attempting to flip the seat, releasing an ad earlier this month tying the congressman to President Biden and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

The party of the sitting president typically loses seats in the midterm elections, stoking fears of a Democratic drubbing when combined with rising inflation and Biden’s low approval rating.

Democrats are hoping their string of legislative victories on issues like gun control and prescription drugs, along with falling gas prices and liberal fury following the Supreme Court’s overturning of federal abortion protections, will counter those headwinds.