Kelly leading Masters by 12 points in Arizona Senate race: poll

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) is leading his Republican challenger Blake Masters by a 12-point margin in the race to hold his seat in November, according to a new poll. 

An Ohio Predictive Insights (OHPI) poll released Wednesday found that Kelly is backed by 47 percent of likely voters, while Masters has support from 35 percent. Libertarian Marc Victor received support from 6 percent of those surveyed, while 12 percent said they were undecided. 

Kelly has mostly led in recent polling but has generally seen more modest leads in the mid-to-upper single digits. He has the lead in key demographics in the Wednesday poll, contributing to his large edge. 

Kelly has considerably higher favorability than Masters. The incumbent is viewed favorably by 51 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 43 percent. Masters is viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 49 percent. 

Much of Kelly’s lead comes from his support from Republicans, 20 percent of whom said they plan to vote for him. Masters only received support from 65 percent of members of his own party, while Kelly received support from 86 percent of Democrats. 

Kelly also leads among independents by 15 points — 43 percent to 28 percent. Ten percent of independents surveyed said they would vote for Victor. 

Twelve percent of Republicans and 19 percent of independents said they are unsure. 

Mike Noble, OHPI’s director of research, said in a release that Kelly is performing well among key underrepresented groups like Hispanics and independents and is in decent standing with Republicans. But Noble said Kelly cannot “count his chickens” yet as early voting does not start for three weeks. 

Kelly leads Masters among Hispanics by 40 points and among voters aged 18 to 34 by 44 points, his most notable areas of support. 

He leads by 25 points among voters making less than $50,000 per year and has tight leads among those making $50,000 to $100,000 annually and those making more than $100,000.

The poll comes a day after a Republican super PAC with ties to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced it was pulling a $9 million ad campaign for Masters.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 6 to 9 from 654 likely voters. The margin of error was 3.83 points.