Kelly leading Masters by 8-point margin in new Arizona survey

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) leads his Republican challenger, Blake Masters, by 8 points in his reelection bid, according to a new AARP poll. 

The poll found that 50 percent of respondents support Kelly compared to 42 percent who support Masters. The Libertarian nominee, Marc Victor, has 4 percent support, and 4 percent said they were undecided. 

Kelly’s lead shrinks slightly in a head-to-head match-up, 52 percent to 45 percent. 

The poll found Democrats almost entirely unified behind Kelly, with the incumbent receiving 95 percent of Democratic support. Masters has support from 80 percent of Republicans, while Kelly has support from 11 percent of GOP respondents. 

Kelly also leads Masters among independents by 8 points. 

The incumbent is viewed much more favorably in the poll than the challenger: Kelly is viewed favorably by 50 percent and unfavorably by 46 percent, while Masters is seen favorably by only 37 percent and is seen unfavorably by 54 percent. 

Kelly and Masters are evenly tied among white voters in the state, and Kelly has a 35-point lead among Hispanics, which make up almost a third of the state’s population. 

Kelly also leads among voters age 50 and older by double digits, fueled by his more than 20-point lead among Hispanics 50 and older and by only trailing among white voters 50 and older by 3 points. 

The poll follows an Ohio Predictive Insights poll released Wednesday that showed Kelly leading Masters by 12 points. 

Kelly has consistently led Masters in recent polling. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Kelly leading Masters by about 8.5 points. 

The AARP poll was conducted among 1,332 likely voters, including a statewide representative sample of 500 likely voters, an oversample of 550 likely voters age 50 and older and an additional oversample of 282 likely Hispanic voters age 50 and older. The poll was conducted from Sept. 8 to 15. 

The margin of error for the statewide sample was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, the margin for the total sample of voters 50 and older was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points and the margin for the Hispanic voters 50 and older was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.