Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. Starting this week, you can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday leading up to November’s election.
Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood (mgreenwood@digital-release.thehill.com), Julia Manchester (jmanchester@digital-release.thehill.com), and Caroline Vakil (cvakil@digital-release.thehill.com).
The midterm outcomes that could help Biden most
There’s been plenty of chatter — and some friction within the Democratic Party — this midterm cycle about whether President Biden will run for another term in 2024.
The White House has made it clear that Biden intends to seek a second term, which the president himself reiterated during a recent interview on “60 Minutes” while also acknowledging “But it’s just an intention. But is it a firm decision that I run again? That remains to be seen.”
At the same time some Democrats have notably declined to say whether they would support him and a few have gone even further, calling for someone younger or more progressive to mount their own 2024 bid.
The midterms could play a critical role in helping Biden make a case for another term, our Hanna Trudo and Amie Parnes write, less than two months before Election Day.
Among the five scenarios they explore that could help Biden, three hinge on midterm results: If Democrats hold the Senate, if they only narrowly lose the House or — and the third is the most unlikely — if Democrats manage to hold both chambers of Congress for another two years.
What they’re saying: “The best scenario is to win the Senate and lose the House because it gives Biden something to run on in ‘24,” one Democratic strategist weighed in.
“We know what Republicans are going to do. They’re going to light themselves on fire and go after everything from Hunter Biden to Anthony Fauci. And it gives Biden the best kind of foil.”
Former President Trump and his multiple investigations could also give a possible boost to a Biden reelection bid, especially if Trump is indicted.
“It would give Biden a huge boost, and Dems as well,” one strategist told Hanna and Amie. “Nothing would bring more joy.”
That’s not to say that Biden himself might not face headwinds if he follows through with his intention to seek a second term. He’s 79 years old right now, and would be 86 years old at the end of a second term.
Yet it’s also unclear if Democrats would consider primarying a sitting president, which could be considered a risky proposition and would also open the Democratic Party up to showcasing intraparty divisions.
All of this comes amid widespread anticipation that Trump will announce another run — though so far he has only teased the possibility.
Hardline governor candidates complicate landscape
Not all of former President Trump’s endorsed candidates won their primaries. But many of the highest-profile Republican names on ballots this November have aligned themselves closely with the former president.
The challenges these candidates face in House and Senate races have been widely covered.
But the question of how to grapple with catering to the hard-right base that got them nominated while not turning off moderate or swing voters is also playing out on the gubernatorial level.
As our Caroline Vakil writes, GOP gubernatorial candidates in states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Michigan have staked out positions on issues like abortion, the 2020 election and use of law enforcement that some worry could cost them in November.
Key quote: “When you have candidates who essentially aren’t helping themselves by staking out either extreme positions or extreme positions on weird issues that only speak to a real core Trump part of the base, it’s not a surprise that there are going to be struggles,” GOP strategist Doug Heye tells Caroline.
Kari Lake and Doug Mastriano, the Republican gubernatorial nominees in Arizona and Pennsylvania, have been widely covered for pushing dubious claims about the 2020 election. Republican Tudor Dixon, who is vying for governor in Michigan, has been noted for her stance on abortion that only gives exceptions for life of the mother but not rape or incest. Maryland GOP candidate Dan Cox suggested in a fundraising email that state law enforcement could be used against the Biden administration if he were elected top executive.
What they’re saying: Lake’s campaign and Cox told The Hill they were not concerned that issues like the 2020 election or their views on using law enforcement against the Biden administration, respectively, could turn off voters. Sara Broadwater, a spokesperson for Dixon’s campaign, referred The Hill to the candidate’s previous comments on abortion and 2020, adding “If you ever want to talk about critical issues facing Michiganders we’d be happy to have a conversation.”
POLL WATCH
We’ve got some new polling from a number of key Senate races today, and most of it should make Democrats pretty happy.
Out west in Arizona, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is leading his Republican challenger Blake Masters 50 percent to 42 percent among all likely voters, according to a new AARP survey.
In Colorado, Democratic Sen. Michael Bennett leads his GOP challenger Joe O’Dea 46 percent to 36 percent, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Thursday.
In New Hampshire, a new poll from the American Research Group shows Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan holding a 13-point lead over her Republican challenger Ret. Gen. Don Bolduc. Fifty-three percent of registered voters said they supported Hassan, while 40 percent said the same about Bolduc.
Moving south to North Carolina, a new Civiqs survey shows Democratic Senate candidate Cheri Beasley leading her Republican opponent Rep. Ted Budd 49 percent to 48 percent. Her lead falls well within the poll’s 5.5 percentage point margin of error.
Meanwhile in Georgia, a new Monmouth University poll shows 48 percent respondents expressing a favorable view of Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, while 42 percent of respondents said they view Republican nominee Herschel Walker as favorable. Forty-four percent of respondents said they viewed Warnock has unfavorable, while 48 percent said the same about Walker.
And in Florida, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is leading his Democratic challenger Rep. Val Demings by only two points, according to a new Civiqs poll. Forty-nine percent of respondents said they supported Rubio, while 47 percent said the same about Demings. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
AD WATCH
The GOP group Congressional Leadership Fund rolled out five news ads in key House districts on Thursday, highlighting crime and the economy. The districts include: Ohio’s 13th District, Arizona’s 6th District, New Hampshire’s 1st District, New York’s 22nd District, and Virginia’s 2nd District.
OP-EDS FROM THE TRAIL
- Your way-too-early 2024 presidential election preview, By Myra Adams of RealClearPolitics
- Nothing in our history prepares Americans for what’s likely to arrive this November, By Amherst College’s Austin Sarat
That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you next week.