Cook Report shifts Arizona Senate race toward Democrats

The Cook Political Report on Thursday shifted the Arizona Senate race, one of the key contests that could decide control of the upper chamber, from a “toss up” to “lean Democrat.”

Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for Cook, a nonpartisan election analysis website, said in her explanation of the move that the Arizona Senate race may be the best example of Democrats being in a strong position to hold the Senate. 

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) has led Republican challenger Blake Masters in recent polling, including an AARP poll released Wednesday that showed him up by 8 points. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Kelly leading Masters by about 8.5 points. 

Taylor noted Kelly had raised $54 million for his campaign and still had almost $25 million left as of the middle of July, while Masters had raised just less than $5 million during the cycle. 

Taylor also said “it is clear that major outside groups are focusing their manpower elsewhere.”

A super PAC tied to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the Senate Leadership Fund confirmed Tuesday that it is cutting $9.6 million in advertising buys after already canceling $8 million in ads last month. 

The Senate Leadership Fund said this week that it expected other groups to step in and make up the fundraising gap, but Taylor said these groups do not have the same extensive donor base. 

Masters’s campaign has also been “fully dark” on television this week, as the last time his campaign fully purchased ad flights ended on Aug. 30. 

Taylor said Cook recently observed a focus group with likely Arizona voters who voted for former President Trump in 2016 and President Biden in 2020. All of them were unhappy with Biden, and most voted in the Republican primary for Senate this year, but 7 out of 9 said they would vote for Kelly over Masters if the election was held today. 

One participant described Masters as “dangerous” to Arizona like Trump was toward the end of his term, while another said, “We’ve reached double digits of questionable things the guy’s said.” 

The Arizona race is the second major Senate contest that the Cook Political Report has shifted out of its “toss up” category and toward Democrats in just over a month.

The publication in August moved the Pennsylvania Senate race — in which Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) is taking on Republican Mehmet Oz — from “toss up” to “lean Democrat.”