Democrats are facing headwinds with one of their most important voting blocs — independent women.
A New York Times-Siena College poll released on Monday shows female independents favoring the GOP by 18 points, a sizable increase since September at a critical juncture before the midterm elections.
The findings come as Republicans zero in on inflation under President Biden as their closing argument.
“At the end of the day, voters are paying more for everything from groceries to energy. When families are struggling to make ends meet, and are having to decide between heating and eating, they are going to vote for change,” Karoline Leavitt, the Republican House nominee challenging Rep. Chris Pappas (D) in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, told The Hill on Monday.
Democrats have focused much of their campaign pitches on abortion rights after the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade roiled up their base.
But now the party is facing questions about that strategy.
“Democrats have overplayed their hand so many times when it comes to these cultural issues,” said one national Republican operative. “[Women] can’t afford to think about one issue, and we’re also smart enough to think about multiple issues.”
Democrats saw abortion rights as a winning issue as GOP governors and state lawmakers moved to adopt more extreme measures. They pointed to independents as a group that could be won over.
But the closing message on abortion was always a gamble, now perhaps more than ever with gas prices again rising and inflation proving to be stubborn.
Leavitt and Pappas are in a virtual tie in a state where reproductive freedom is considered a signature issue.
“The Biden agenda has been disastrous for Americans across the board,” said Leavitt, who argued that “the most effective way to get our country back on track” is by halting “reckless spending” and giving Americans more “energy independence.”
Not all Democrats are tossing aside the abortion rights first strategy, and some operatives on Monday dismissed the New York Times poll.
“I have the same skepticism of this poll that I had of polling in 2016/2020, which is that it doesn’t seem to account for a wave of first-time voters who aren’t traditionally reached by pollsters,” said one Democratic strategist. “In 2016, those new voters were people Trump brought out. Now it’s voters activated by abortion.”
Other Democrats are more concerned, given the hardships piling up for many voters. The survey showed that 44 percent of voters ranked inflation or the economy as their top issue.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), in an op-ed for The Guardian, warned that while protecting abortion rights is critical, Democrats should focus on addressing voters’ immediate economic considerations first.
“As we enter the final weeks of the 2022 midterm elections, I am alarmed to hear the advice that many Democratic candidates are getting from establishment consultants and directors of well-funded Super PACs that the closing argument of Democrats should focus only on abortion,” Sanders wrote.
That view is not confined to Sanders, who often touts an economic message above all else. Veteran Democratic strategists James Carville and David Axelrod, two moderates who worked for former presidents Obama and Clinton, also recently expressed skepticism about the Democratic strategy.
Not too long ago, Biden said that the economy was “strong as hell.” Republicans have resurfaced that remark in opposition research campaigns to paint him as out of touch.
Democratic groups have spent millions on their messaging and ground games in key states, hoping to get independents to vote for their party. American Bridge, a Democratic political action committee, says women remain one of the most “critical” voting blocs to keeping control of Congress.
“Through our research, we know that this group cares about both the future of their reproductive rights AND the economy,” said Julie McClain Downey, who serves as the group’s vice president of strategic communications.
“For the next few weeks, it’s critical that Democratic candidates and groups continue to talk to them about our accomplishments and plans on both, while also pointing out the fact that Republicans only continue to get most extreme, dangerous and obstructionist on everything,” she said.
In high-visibility battlegrounds, Democrats and Republicans alike have tried to balance abortion rights and the economy.
In Pennsylvania, home to one of the closely watched Senate races of the cycle, Democratic nominee John Fetterman has homed in on abortion access in an effort to galvanize the base while attracting independent and moderate Republican voters.
Fetterman has repeatedly attacked his GOP opponent, former television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz, for not being clear enough on whether he would sign onto Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) proposed national ban on abortions 15 weeks into a pregnancy. Democrats say the issue stands to play well across Pennsylvania, particularly in the Philadelphia suburbs.
“I’ve always thought it was going to end up turning at the end of the day to the economy and to people’s pocketbooks. Elections like this always do,” said T.J. Rooney, the former chairman of Pennsylvania’s Democratic Party. “But the question was, are all the things that [have] gone in our favor on the margins enough to account for the deficit?”
Oz has made inroads in the polls in recent weeks as his campaign and national Republicans have focused increasingly on crime. A poll conducted by Emerson College and The Hill late last month showed Fetterman leading Oz by only 2 points, down from his 4-point lead in August.
“The economy and crime are too big to overlook right now,” the national Republican operative said.
Republicans also accuse Democrats of oversimplifying the abortion issue in their campaign materials, saying that voters don’t buy it.
“When you ask voters are they pro-life or pro-choice, if you stop right there, that’s not actually a fair analysis on the issue of actually where they are,” the operative said.