The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for the Senate races in Florida and Washington in favor of the Republican Party on Tuesday, with only three weeks left until Election Day.
The report moved the Florida Senate race from “lean Republican” to “likely Republican” and the Washington Senate race from “solid Democratic” to “likely Democratic” as Republicans’ midterm outlook improved in recent weeks.
In Florida, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio has continued to lead his opponent Democratic Rep. Val Demings by mid-single digits in the polls, and Demings has not seen the movement she “needs to pull off an upset in a state like Florida,” according to The Cook Political Report.
The Democratic Party saw some glimmers of hope over the summer as the race tightened. A Civiqs poll from late September showed Demings trailing Rubio by just 2 points.
However, a Mason-Dixon poll from early October showed Rubio with a 6-point lead over Demings, and The Cook Political Report noted that winning those extra few points in Florida would require a “herculean” effort by Demings.
In Washington, five-term Democratic Sen. Patty Murray still holds a comfortable lead over her Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley, but Democrats have lost some of their edge in the Pacific Northwest, according to The Cook Political Report.
Murray is currently leading Smiley by a comfortable 10 points, according to an average from handicapper FiveThirtyEight. However, Smiley has managed to increase her support slightly in recent months, while Murray has held steady at around 50 percent.
Despite Republican gains in other states, The Cook Political Report moved the Iowa Senate race between longtime Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley and Democratic challenger Mike Franken in the opposite direction, from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” as Franken closes in on Grassley in the polls.
A recent Des Moines Register-Mediacom Iowa poll showed Grassley leading Franken by only 3 points. However, an Emerson College poll earlier this month put Grassley ahead by 11 points, and The Cook Political Report warned that it remains “highly skeptical” that Grassley will lose.