A new poll of Arizona voters by Data for Progress, a left-leaning polling firm, shows that Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is now in a dead heat with venture capital executive and Republican nominee Blake Masters, another troubling sign for Democrats’ hopes of keeping the Senate majority.
Kelly had led Masters, who has the support of former President Trump, by as many as 7 percentage points a month ago.
But Kelly’s lead has shrunk steadily over recent weeks and the former astronaut is now in a tie with Masters, a former executive at Thiel Capital, the venture capital fund of conservative super-donor Peter Thiel.
The survey of 893 likely voters in Arizona conducted from Oct. 11 to Oct. 17 found that 47 percent of respondents would vote for Kelly and 47 percent would vote for Masters, with 4 percent not sure and 3 percent supporting Libertarian Marc Victor.
The poll also found that Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is leading her Democratic opponent Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs by 4 percentage points.
The survey found that Biden has a 42 percent favorable rating in the state while Trump has a 49 percent favorable rating — with 34 percent reporting a “very favorable” view of the former president.
Eighty-seven percent of likely Democratic voters said they have a favorable view of Biden while 90 percent of likely Republican voters said they have a favorable view of Trump. Thirty-four percent of independent and third-party voters have a favorable view of Biden while 41 percent of this group has a favorable view of Trump.
The Data for Progress poll is only the latest showing Masters trending upward in the race.
A Republican-leaning Daily Wire-Trafalgar poll conducted from Oct. 16 to Oct. 17 showed Kelly leading Masters by only 1 percentage point.
Only a few weeks ago, some Senate Republican strategists had given Masters little chance of beating Kelly, who raised far more money than his Republican challenger.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), announced late last month that it had canceled nearly $10 million in television ads in Arizona, a sign that its leaders saw Masters had a slim chance of winning.
But National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Rick Scott (R-Fla.) touted Masters’s chances of winning in an interview with The Hill last week. Scott, however, declined to comment on whether the Senate Leadership Fund made a mistake by canceling its reserved television time in Arizona.
The NRSC announced earlier this month that it would make a seven-figure investment in Arizona in the final weeks of the campaign.