Campaign Report — Hope and panic as midterms tighten 

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Candidates close the gap in key Senate races

From Arizona to Georgia to Pennsylvania to New Hampshire — Senate races in crucial battleground states are starting to run down to the wire as Republicans find themselves gaining momentum with less than two weeks to go from the November midterms.  

Recent polling shows many GOP contenders polling within the margin of error against their Democratic counterparts while Republicans’ preferred midterm issues of inflation, the economy and rising gas prices are ever-present on the minds of voters. That’s especially shown itself in races like New Hampshire and Georgia.

And while Democrats have been going on offense in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, they’re also punching above their weight in states that should theoretically be favoring Republicans, like in Ohio and Iowa, as The Hill’s Al Weaver reports. 

That’s made predictions about the Senate map anyone’s guess.  

Balancing act: “It’s a crapshoot. I don’t dispute the polls. … Whoever turns out is going to win. It’s 50-50. It is tight as a tick,” Dave Carney, a New Hampshire-based GOP strategist, told Al about the New Hampshire Senate race. 

Some of the most enduring competitive candidates on the Democratic cycle have been Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), the former NASA astronaut known for his eye-popping fundraising sums, and Democrat Tim Ryan, who’s kept polling tight against Republican J.D. Vance in Ohio even into the fall months.  

Meanwhile on the Republican side, Republican Mehmet Oz has closed the gap on Democrat Fetterman in Pennsylvania, targeting the Democrat on crime and his transparency on his health issues. Fetterman suffered a stroke days before the May primary. And even as outside Republican spending exited the race earlier this month in New Hampshire, groups like the Senate GOP campaign arm found themselves drawn back into the state as a more favorable political environment has led to Republican Don Bolduc keeping polling on edge against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.). 

In a nod to the tightening nature of the November midterms, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report changed its rating of the Arizona Senate race on Thursday from “leans Democrat” to “toss up,” noting private polling showing the two polling competitively. 

Still, Cook Political noted that among all of the races in their “toss up” column, they believed Kelly was favored to win the most among the other Democratic contenders.

Biden, Harris and Obama head to Pennsylvania  

President Biden, Vice President Harris and former President Obama are heading to the Keystone State to rally around Senate hopeful John Fetterman (D) in a sign of the increasing importance of an election that could determine which party holds the majority next cycle.  

Biden has already traveled to the state twice this year and will be heading back with Harris on Friday to campaign in Philadelphia. Biden and Obama are also expected to stump for Fetterman and gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro (D) on Nov. 5.  

While some Democrats acknowledge Harris and Biden rallying in Pennsylvania this Friday could be risky, especially given how rarely the two appear at out-of-state events and given how Republicans are hoping residents will consider their votes as an indictment of the current administration, others tell The Hill’s Amie Parnes and Alex Gangitano that it’s a helpful boost for Fetterman. 

Key quote: “It’s always helpful to have the two leaders of the party out there in the final push,” one Democratic strategist told Amie and Alex. “Is it risky? Maybe. But it sends a powerful message in a really important race.”  

In addition to Obama heading to Pennsylvania, the former president has also cut several ads for Fetterman and the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm. The moves together have illustrated the most closely coordinated Democratic effort in one Senate race this cycle. Those moves will be especially critical given a lopsided debate performance between Fetterman and GOP candidate Mehmet Oz earlier this week that demonstrated the Democrat struggling at times to answer questions with the aid of closed-captioning. 

“Their agenda is on the ballot,” another one Democratic strategist close to the White House told the pair. “For Biden, it’s about how he will be able to govern the next two years and for Harris, it’s about deepening her relationships with the Democratic coalitions and expanding her name ID.”

POLL WATCH

In Connecticut: An Emerson College Polling/WTNH/The Hill survey released on Thursday found Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.) polling neck and neck with Republican George Logan in the state’s 5th Congressional District. The poll found Logan receiving 48 percent support among very likely general election voters compared to Hayes’ 47 percent, polling well within the margin of error and effectively tying the two.  

On a generic ballot: A Suffolk University-USA Today poll found that Republicans hold a lead over Democrats on a generic congressional ballot at 49 percent of likely voters and 45 percent respectively. 

AD WATCH

Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance’s (R) campaign released a new ad on Thursday targeting Democrat Tim Ryan over the Democrat’s record voting and inflation. The 30-second ad, called “Breakfast,” features his daughter and is a part of a seven-figure ad campaign. 

“In our family, I make breakfast. But since Biden took over, breakfast and everything else is much more expensive. Tim Ryan could have stopped this inflation which is killing the middle class. Instead, he voted 100 percent for Biden and Pelosi’s liberal plans for trillions in new spending and taxes: that’s why groceries are so expensive,” Vance says in the ad. “If Tim Ryan shared our values, it wouldn’t be like this. I’m J.D. Vance, and I approve this message because our families deserve better.”  

The House Majority PAC, which is aligned with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), announced on Thursday that it was launching an ad blitz in five House seats: Indiana’s 1st Congressional District, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, New York’s 18th Congressional District and Oregon’s 4th and 6th Congressional Districts. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you next week.