Campaign Report — The five races that could determine the Senate

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One week out from Election Day 

Election Day is officially seven days away and the campaigns are making their final pushes.  

In the House, Republicans appear to still be holding onto their advantage. A Wall Street Journal poll released on Tuesday showed Republicans leading Democrats on the generic ballot 46 percent to 44 percent. While the GOP’s lead is within the margin of error, it does mark an improvement from the publication’s August poll which showed Democrats leading by three points.  

The race for the Senate majority is a different story. While Democrats were favored to retain their majority earlier this year, a number of races in key states including Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia have narrowed considerably.  

The Hill’s Max Greenwood and Al Weaver break down the five Senate races that could determine the Senate majority.  

Georgia: While Republican Herschel Walker has grappled with allegations that he encouraged and paid for former partners to receive abortions, he has not yet taken a major hit in the polls. Instead, he has narrowed the gap with incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock and has stuck to his message of hitting Warnock over rising inflation and crime.  

Nevada: Incumbent Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto may be the most vulnerable senator this cycle, with numerous polls showing her and Republican Adam Laxalt deadlocked ahead of Election Day. It’s worth noting, however, that Nevada has a transient population that makes it particularly hard to pin down politically. 

Pennsylvania:  Republican Mehmet Oz has momentum going into the final days of the campaign against his Democratic opponent John Fetterman. While Fetterman maintains a slight lead in most polling, Oz’s performance is a stark improvement. Oz has stayed laser focused on crime and inflation. Additionally, Fetterman’s campaign has hit roadblocks when it comes to questions about his health after suffering a stroke in May.  

Wisconsin: Going into the cycle, Democrats expressed optimism about Wisconsin. The party believed voters could be convinced to oust incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson due to his past controversies. However, Democratic nominee Mandela Barnes was labeled early on as a “radical leftist” and struggled to fend off those attacks.  

Arizona: Of all of the five states listed, Democrats likely have the best chance of holding onto incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly’s seat. However, Republican Blake Masters has closed the gap in recent weeks, according to polling.  

Dem chances in Wisconsin’s Senate race look slim

The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports that Democrats are once again watching their chances in Wisconsin slip away as political handicappers give Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes less of a chance of winning than the party’s candidates in other top tier races in states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia.  

Five-Thirty-Eight’s Nate Silver said last week that he is giving Barnes only a 24 in 100 chance of ousting Johnson.  

But Democrats say they are confident that they can galvanize enough young and Democratic voters to oust Johnson. And the party is continuing to pull out all of the stops for Barnes, with former President Obama holding a rally for the Democratic candidate in the state over the weekend. 

OBAMA AND BIDEN THIS WEEKEND

Obama will continue his midterm push on Saturday, where he will hold a rally for Fetterman in Pittsburgh. Then the former president and Fetterman will join President Biden and Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro for a rally in Philadelphia.  

The rallies, which will take place three days before Election Day, underscore the importance of the role Pennsylvania will play in the midterm elections.  

POLL WATCH

New polling from Emerson College and The Hill shows incumbent Colorado Sen. Michael Bennett leading his Republican challenger Joe O’Dea 49 percent to 42 percent.  

AnotherEmerson College/The Hill survey released on Tuesday shows Republican Missouri Senate candidate Eric Schmitt holding a substantial lead over his Democratic challenger Trudy Busch Valentine at 51 percent to 39 percent.  

In Michigan’s governor’s race, incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer leads her GOP challenger Tudor Dixon by nine points, according to polling from WDIV and The Detroit News.  

AD WATCH

Democratic Florida gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist rolled out a new ad on Tuesday hitting incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis over abortion access. The seven-figure ad buy is slated to run in media markets across the state.  

Schmitt’s Senate campaign rolled out a new attack ad in Missouri on Tuesday, tying Busch Valentine to Biden.  

In the House, incumbent Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger released a new ad touting her economic record and support for workforce training and apprenticeship programs.  

On the Republican side of the aisle, the Congressional Leadership Fund put out ads in Indiana’s 1st Congressional District, Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, California’s 49th Congressional District, and for the first time this cycle in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you tomorrow.