Arizona Senate, governor races deadlocked ahead of Election Day: polls

The races for Arizona’s Senate seat and governor’s mansion are virtually deadlocked days before the midterm elections, according to two new polls released Friday. 

A new survey from Emerson College Polling on Friday shows Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters leading Sen. Mark Kelly (D) 48 percent to 47 percent, falling well within the poll’s 3-point margin of error. However, with 1 percent of undecided voters accounted for, the race is tied at 48 percent. 

Despite the razor-thin margins going into Election Day, 52 percent of voters said they expect Kelly to win while 47 percent said the same about Masters. 

“Arizona independent voters break for Kelly over Masters, 50 percent to 42 percent,” said Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Independent men break for Kelly by five points, 51 percent to 46 percent, whereas independent women break for Kelly by nine points, 48 percent to 37 percent.”

A separate poll also out on Friday from the Marist Institute of Public Opinion shows Kelly leading Masters, 50 percent to 47 percent, among voters who say they “definitely” plan to vote, falling within the survey’s margin of error. Among registered Arizona voters, Kelly leads Masters for points, 49 percent to 45 percent. 

Arizona’s Senate race is one of the most hotly contested of the cycle. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss up” and the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Kelly leading Masters by 1 point. 

The state’s gubernatorial contest between Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Kari Lake has also garnered national attention. The same Emerson College Polling survey showed Lake leading Hobbs 49 percent to 47 percent, also within the poll’s margin of error. With two percent of the undecided vote accounted for, Lake’s support goes up to 50 percent while Hobbs’s sits at 47 percent. Fifty-eight percent of voters expect Lake to win, while 43 percent say they expect Hobbs to win. 

The Marist Poll has Hobbs up 49 percent to 48 percent over Lake among those who say they definitely plan to vote in the election, also within that poll’s margin of error. Among registered voters in the state, Hobbs still led Lake 48 percent to 47 percent.

“Democratic candidates for Senate and Governor face strong headwinds in Arizona. They have an unpopular Democratic president, a Republican statewide electorate, and the economy as a top of mind issue for many voters,” said Lee M. Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. 

The Emerson College Polling survey out of Arizona was conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1 among 1,000 very likely voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

The Marist poll in Arizona was conducted Oct. 31 to Nov. 2 among 1,157 registered voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The Marist poll conducted among 1,015 voters who said they were definitely voting was conducted during the same period with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.