A majority of voters under 30 supported Democratic House candidates in this year’s midterms, but the party’s support from the age group fell from the 2020 presidential election, according to a new national survey.
The sweeping AP VoteCast survey found that 53 percent of voters under 30 supported Democratic House candidates in the midterm elections, while 41 percent supported Republican candidates.
But in 2020, President Biden garnered the support of 61 percent of those voters compared to former President Trump’s 36 percent.
Two years earlier, voters under 30 supported Democrats by an even larger 30-point margin, giving the party a 41-seat gain in the House that year and allowing them to take the majority.
Younger voters have historically served as a key voting group for Democrats, and the falling support marks a potential sign of waning enthusiasm as eyes turn toward the 2024 presidential election.
This year, younger voters’ support for Democrats varied depending on the race, pollsters found.
In Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Shapiro outpaced Biden’s support in 2020 among voters under 45 by earning the support of 64 percent of those residents, according to the survey.
That large margin helped Shapiro cruise to victory over Republican Doug Mastriano by nearly 15 percentage points, a far larger margin than Biden’s victory over Trump in the state.
But in Nevada and New Hampshire, where Republicans won the governor’s races despite Democratic Senate victories on the same ballot, the survey found Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) received the support of just 54 percent of voters under 45, while Biden carried the group with 61 percent support in 2020. Sisolak narrowly lost reelection to Republican Joe Lombardo.
In New Hampshire, 59 percent of voters under 45 supported Biden in 2020, but just 43 percent voted for the Democratic candidate in this year’s gubernatorial race. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu was easily reelected in the Granite State.
The AP VoteCast also found that about half of young voters in the most competitive states cited the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade as having a major impact on their decision to turn out.
Democrats had seized on the high court’s decision in an effort to channel liberals’ fury into electoral success in the midterms, releasing extensive ad campaigns on abortion and making it a key issue on the campaign trail.
The survey also found that 36 percent of voters under 45 identify as progressive Democrats, a larger share than the 20 percent of older voters.
The AP VoteCast is conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for The Associated Press and Fox News.
This year’s survey was based on about 115,000 interviews with registered voters between Oct. 31 and Nov. 8, including a national survey and 48 state-based surveys. The margin of error for questions involving voters nationwide is about 0.6 percentage points.