GOP pollster Frank Luntz writes in a new op-ed that Republican presidential contenders in 2024 should focus on former President Trump’s “unforced errors” since his “rule-breaking” 2016 campaign in order to beat Trump.
“There is one conundrum that fascinates me above others: Why does Donald Trump still generate such loyalty and devotion? And unlike 2016, can a different Republican win the nomination in 2024 who largely shares Mr. Trump’s agenda but not his personality?” Luntz asked in The New York Times.
Luntz wrote that the “way forward for other Republican presidential contenders” begins by “reflecting more closely on Mr. Trump’s rule-breaking, paradigm-shattering campaign in 2016 and all of his unforced errors since then.”
“It accurately reflects the significant attitudinal and economic changes in America over the past eight years. And it requires an acceptance that pummeling [Trump] and attempting to decimate his base will not work. Trump voters are paying laserlike attention to all the candidates. If they think a candidate’s mission is to defeat their hero, the candidate will fail,” Luntz said.
Trump, who lost his 2020 reelection bid and launched his 2024 campaign after last year’s midterms, leads most early polling among Republicans for the upcoming presidential race despite facing several investigations and being hit with criminal charges earlier this in a Manhattan case.
His former ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, entered the 2024 Republican primary earlier this year, followed by conservative entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R). Other top GOP figures, like Florida Gov. Ron Desantis and Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, are also expected to run.
A 2024 contender who could challenge Trump for the GOP nomination needs to convince Republican voters “that he or she wants to listen to and learn from them,” Luntz wrote. He argued that neither Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) nor Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) “understood this dynamic when they attacked Mr. Trump in 2016, and that’s why they failed.”
Luntz laid out what he called “a playbook for potential Republican candidates and for G.O.P. voters and conservative independents wanting someone other than Mr. Trump in 2024,” arguing they need, among other things, endorsements from people who voted for Trump in earlier races.
“Compliment Mr. Trump’s presidency while you criticize the person,” Luntz instructs. “Make it more about the grandchildren. Millions of Trump voters are old — really old.”
“Among the likely Republican rivals to Mr. Trump for the nomination, no one is coming close yet to doing some or all of this,” Luntz added.