Kari Lake holds wide lead in hypothetical Arizona Senate GOP primary: poll

Former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake holds a wide lead over other prospective challengers in a hypothetical Arizona Senate Republican primary, according to a new poll.

A poll released by J. L. Partners and shared with The Hill on Monday found Lake receiving 38 percent support in an Arizona Senate GOP primary among registered Republican and undeclared voters, followed next by former Arizona gubernatorial candidate and developer Karrin Taylor Robson at 10 percent.

Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb came in third at 8 percent, followed by former Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters with 7 percent, former state Attorney General candidate Abe Hamadeh with 4 percent, businessman and former Arizona Senate candidate Jim Lamon at 3 percent and 2 percent saying someone else.

But a large swath of respondents — 29 percent — say they’re undecided, meaning there’s plenty of time for voters to coalesce around a candidate other than Lake. So far, Lamb is the only candidate to enter the race officially.

Lake retained an edge among both voters who expressed a preference for former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as their presidential picks. But among voters who did not have a presidential primary preference, Lake found herself tied for first place against Robson at 13 percent.

“If Kari Lake decides to run, it’s clear she is not only the front-runner but will run away with the nomination. The GOP establishment would be smart to get behind her right away so we can win Arizona,” said one GOP strategist who requested anonymity to speak candidly.

The polling comes as Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) has not yet formally announced whether she will run for reelection, though The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that she’s gearing up for another run.

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) has announced a run on the Democratic side; because Sinema is now a registered independent, it frees them up to run separately to avoid a primary challenge. 

The polling is also likely to confirm fears some Republicans have expressed about a possible Senate bid from Lake, whose name recognition remains strong among her base but whose espousal of election conspiracy theories could cost her in a general election. 

The same poll found Trump leading DeSantis in Arizona, 47 percent to 24 percent.

The J. L. Partners poll was conducted between April 10 to April 12 with 550 registered Republicans and undeclared voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.