Trump extends lead over DeSantis in GOP primary: poll

Former President Trump has marginally extended his lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), his presumed chief White House contender, in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll shared exclusively with The Hill.

The poll found that 55 percent of respondents who identified as Republicans said they would back Trump in the 2024 GOP presidential primary in a hypothetical matchup of other Republican contenders. DeSantis came in second place at 20 percent, while former Vice President Pence came in third at 7 percent.

Former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R), Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) all polled at 5 percent or lower.

Another 2 percent said someone else, and 8 percent said they didn’t know or were unsure.

A Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll released last month showed 50 percent of respondents saying they would back Trump, compared to 24 percent who said DeSantis. While Trump and DeSantis’ numbers are lower in April than they were last month, the polling shows that Trump is still in the driver’s seat of the GOP presidential primary.

“DeSantis is going through a near-death moment, which is common for a challenger campaign — he needs to restrategize his effort or lose his status as the Trump challenger,” said Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll. “The numbers show clearly the New York indictment has only energized the Trump base and even widened it.”

Of course, the first GOP presidential debates and the primaries are still months away, and Republicans are quick to caution against writing off DeSantis, who hasn’t even yet officially declared his candidacy.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey was conducted between April 18 and April 19 and surveyed 1,845 registered voters. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.

The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.