Why Trump’s strategy of skipping a GOP debate is so risky

Former President Donald Trump is publicly and privately suggesting he will skip the first Republican presidential primary debates scheduled for this summer, an idea that is divisive among current and former advisers.

Trump has openly mused he should not have to stand on a stage with other candidates he is leading by 20 percentage points or more in several national polls while simultaneously taking heat from moderators.

“When you’re leading by seemingly insurmountable numbers, and you have hostile Networks with angry, TRUMP & MAGA hating anchors asking the ‘questions,’ why subject yourself to being libeled and abused?” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

But the strategy is not without risks. The first debate will take place in August and could provide a springboard for an alternative candidate who seizes the spotlight and marks a compelling case for the party to move on from Trump.

“He thinks he has this insurmountable lead, and it’s to everyone else’s benefit, but not his, to show up at these debates,” said David Urban, who advised Trump’s 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns.

“I think the folks around him … would try to disabuse him of that notion, because if he’s not there on that stage, the other people on that stage will do nothing but whack on the person that’s not there,” Urban added. “And they’ll get to attack him and say things, and he won’t be able to respond.”

Trump last week publicly floated the idea of skipping at least one of the first two scheduled GOP primary debates. The first GOP primary debate is set for August in Milwaukee. The date of the second has not yet been announced, but it will be hosted at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California.

The former president sees several reasons not to engage. Perhaps the biggest is his substantial lead in the polls. 

A Fox News poll released last month showed Trump leading his next closest potential competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), by 32 percentage points. A Reuters poll released last month showed Trump ahead by 26 percentage points, and an NBC News poll had Trump leading by 15 percentage points.

“I don’t think he’s showing up,” said one former Trump campaign adviser. “It only helps these people. There’s no reason for him to go. He’s not going to go up, he can only go down.” 

The adviser pointed to Trump’s past debate performances as further evidence Trump has little to gain from attending the primary debates.

The former president had rocky performances in his debates with Hillary Clinton during the 2016 general election.

In his first debate with Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, he frequently interrupted his rival and made the wrong kind of headlines by telling the Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by.” He later tested positive for COVID-19.

There are also personal grievances contributing to Trump’s stance. The first debate will be hosted by Fox News, a network Trump has had a hot-and-cold relationship with since leaving office. 

Trump has appeared with the network’s opinion hosts like Sean Hannity and Mark Levin, but his campaign still holds a grudge against Fox for calling Arizona for President Biden on Election Night in 2020, and Trump skipped the network’s debate in 2016 amid a feud with then-anchor Megyn Kelly. 

In suggesting he may skip the second debate, the former president has also pointed to the Reagan Library’s relationship with Fred Ryan, who is the publisher of The Washington Post and who leads the library’s board of directors.

GOP strategists and even some Trump associates, however, are mindful that skipping one or both debates could ultimately hurt the former president and give his opponents an opening.

“I don’t think Trump has much to gain from a debate in August, assuming he’s still the prohibitive front-runner,” said Alex Conant, who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign. “But skipping the debate will give a lot of oxygen to his challengers.”

A debate stage without Trump would present a major opportunity for other candidates to distinguish themselves as alternatives to the former president. Perhaps no individual would have more riding on that opportunity than DeSantis, who is consistently polling second behind Trump but has seen the former president’s lead expand in recent weeks.

DeSantis and other potential candidates, such as former Vice President Mike Pence, could use a debate without Trump to draw a contrast with the former president without having to parry away any barbs from Trump in real time.

Trump’s legal baggage and Republican defeats in 2018, 2020 and 2022 with Trump leading the party would also be fair game, and the former president would not be there to defend himself.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), who is expected to announce this month whether he will join the GOP primary field, this week previewed how Trump’s opponents might look to capitalize on his absence at a debate.

“I’m sorry to see that Donald Trump feels like if he gets on the stage, he’s at risk of losing his lead,” Christie told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. “If, in fact, his ideas are so great, if his leadership is so outstanding, then his lead will only increase if he gets on the stage, not decrease. But obviously, he’s afraid.”

One former Trump adviser said they believed Trump would ultimately see the merits of taking part in the debates. But should he opt out, it would align with how he has run the primary campaign so far, largely brushing aside any would-be challengers.

Trump joined the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in person earlier this year, but he only appeared virtually at an Iowa event hosted by the Faith and Freedom Coalition that drew several other 2024 contenders.

In 2016, Trump skipped a primary debate hosted by Fox News over his feud with Kelly following an earlier debate when she pressed Trump on his derogatory comments about women. In March 2016, Trump threatened to skip a CNN town hall interview, citing his perception that the network had treated him unfairly.

Trump, who went on to become the Republican nominee in 2016, is expecting that once again he won’t pay the price with voters for his approach.

“His premise that people who are front-runners generally avoid debates is correct. Trump knows that doing so deprives his opponents an opportunity to take him on directly and burst his balloon,” said Doug Heye, a former spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “That he was not penalized for skipping a debate in 2015 no doubt solidifies in his mind that he will not pay a price.”