Election forecaster moves five House seats toward Democrats after Supreme Court ruling

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report moved five House seats toward the Democrats after the Supreme Court sided with Black voters in a congressional redistricting case from Alabama.

The forecaster changed Alabama’s first and second districts — represented by Republican Reps. Jerry Carl and Barry Moore, respectively — from “Solid R” to “Toss Up” after the ruling. 

Louisiana’s fifth and sixth districts — represented by Republican Reps. Julia Letlow and Garret Graves, respectively — also shifted from “Solid R” to “Toss Up.”

North Carolina’s first district — represented by Democrat Rep. Don Davis — switched from “Toss Up” to “Lean D.” 

“The landmark decision in Allen v. Milligan could reverberate across the Deep South, leading to the creation of new Black-majority, strongly Democratic seats in multiple states,” wrote David Wasserman, CPR’s senior editor for the U.S. House of Representatives.

The Supreme Court in a 5-4 decision on Thursday struck down Alabama’s Republican-drawn congressional map, affirming a lower ruling that ordered the state to create a new map with an additional majority-Black district.

The justices ruled the GOP map likely violated the Voting Rights Act by diluting the power of Black voters.