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Election forecaster moves five House seats toward Democrats after Supreme Court ruling

FILE - The U.S. Supreme Court is seen on Capitol Hill in Washington, May 2, 2023. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File Photo)

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report moved five House seats toward the Democrats after the Supreme Court sided with Black voters in a congressional redistricting case from Alabama.

The forecaster changed Alabama’s first and second districts — represented by Republican Reps. Jerry Carl and Barry Moore, respectively — from “Solid R” to “Toss Up” after the ruling. 

Louisiana’s fifth and sixth districts — represented by Republican Reps. Julia Letlow and Garret Graves, respectively — also shifted from “Solid R” to “Toss Up.”

North Carolina’s first district — represented by Democrat Rep. Don Davis — switched from “Toss Up” to “Lean D.” 

“The landmark decision in Allen v. Milligan could reverberate across the Deep South, leading to the creation of new Black-majority, strongly Democratic seats in multiple states,” wrote David Wasserman, CPR’s senior editor for the U.S. House of Representatives.

The Supreme Court in a 5-4 decision on Thursday struck down Alabama’s Republican-drawn congressional map, affirming a lower ruling that ordered the state to create a new map with an additional majority-Black district.

The justices ruled the GOP map likely violated the Voting Rights Act by diluting the power of Black voters.