Fifty days out from the November elections, Democrats are widely seen as favored to retake the House majority and are increasingly seen as having a real chance at winning back the Senate if a series of close races break in their direction.
The party enjoys a healthy lead in the generic House ballot, and a seemingly unending series of bad headlines for President Trump has battered his approval ratings and served as a drag on his party.
{mosads}The latest negative news came Friday with former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort’s decision to plead guilty and cooperate with special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe.
It’s a potentially pivotal moment in the Mueller probe that could put prosecutors in the room of a much-talked-about 2016 Trump Tower meeting between Trump campaign officials and figures associated with the Kremlin.
Manafort was one of three key Trump associates who participated in that meeting.
The White House and Republicans argue the growing economy will bolster GOP defenses and save their majorities. Democrats would need to gain a healthy 23 seats to take back the House.
“I think we’ll lose some seats, but I think we keep the majority,” Rep. Roger Williams (R-Texas) told The Hill last week ahead of a weeklong recess for the House.
Yet Republican leaders have also put out warning signals, highlighting the reality that their party is playing defense with 50 days to go.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) warned last week that the midterms will be “very challenging” for the GOP, acknowledging that the party is facing a “storm” in its quest to hold its majority in the Senate.
McConnell’s quandary can be seen clearly in the nature of the battleground states.
Republicans have a favorable map, with Democrats defending more than twice as many Senate seats as the GOP, with 10 of them in states won by Trump in 2016.
But Republicans face competitive battles in Tennessee, Arizona and Texas, three dependably GOP states.
Close races have not emerged in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, three states won by Trump where Democrats are defending Senate seats.
In the House, 11 GOP seats are considered “likely Democrat” or “leaning Democrat” by the Cook Political Report, compared to one seat held by Democrats that is considered likely to be won by Republicans.
The one Democratic seat, in Pennsylvania, is likely to be won by a Republican candidate because of newly drawn district lines.
Another 28 GOP-held seats are considered toss-ups, compared to just three for Democrats in Cook’s tally.
Democrats left for the recess sounding confident.
“The mood is we wish the elections were Tuesday,” said Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.). “The Republicans are in political quicksand, and the more they struggle the harder it is for them.
Republicans warn that a Democratic takeover of the House would lead to impeachment for Trump — a message intended to fire up the president’s base.
They also are warning of a leftward tilt to the Democratic Party seen in a few primary upsets, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s victory in New York over Rep. Joseph Crowley.
Democratic leaders, as they have done for much of 2018, are seeking to tamp down impeachment talk while focusing on healthcare and other pocketbook issues.
Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Thursday that healthcare will be the top issue for voters this year.
“Many of our Republican colleagues have voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, not just once but as many as 60 times,” Luján said.
Trump is likely to play an outsize role in the midterms even with Democrats downplaying impeachment.
Deep dissatisfaction with the president has helped boost Democratic turnout throughout the primaries. Democrats have also been raising more money than their GOP counterparts, another factor pointing to greater enthusiasm on their sides.
There is still time for Trump to turn some news cycles to his advantage.
How the White House responds to Hurricane Florence will be a test of the president’s leadership and the administration’s preparations. Trump insisted last week that federal, state and local officials were “absolutely prepared” for the hurricane.
Sitting presidents typically see their party lose congressional seats in their first midterms, putting history squarely on Democrats’ side.
Trump’s approval rating currently sits just below 41 percent, according to a polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight.
That’s lower than former President Obama’s approval rating in 2010, the same year that Republicans took the majority in the House and gained six seats in the Senate.
But the concentration of Democratic voters in more urban and suburban areas of the country means that the party will need a larger share of the midterm than the Republicans, whose voters tend to live in more rural and exurban areas.
And in the battle for the Senate, the map could save the GOP’s majority.
Democrats need almost all of the close races to break their way to win back the Senate majority.
That means that Democrats Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly in Indiana and Claire McCaskill in Missouri will need to win in states that Trump won in 2016 by wide margins.
Republicans also see a pick-up opportunity in Florida, where they recruited Gov. Rick Scott to run against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson.
While Florida has emerged as a piece of good news in the Senate race for the GOP, they have reason to worry a bit about Texas, where Democrats recruited a telegenic candidate in Rep. Beto O’Rourke to run against Sen. Ted Cruz (R).
Cruz is favored to win reelection, but the mere fact that Texas is a close race is a victory of sorts for Democrats, potentially forcing Republicans to spend money in a state they’d hope would be in the bag.
In West Virginia, Sen. Joe Manchin (D) is proving resilient in what may be Trump’s strongest state in the nation.
Democrats long saw Nevada as their most likely Senate pickup opportunity in 2018 given Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s victory there in 2016. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) has mounted an aggressive challenge against incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R).
But the party is also eyeing seats in Arizona and Tennessee, where polls remain tight.
Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) made inroads in her Arizona Senate bid throughout the summer as three Republicans duked it out in a bruising primary that eventually yielded Rep. Martha McSally (R) as the nominee.
In Tennessee, Democrats have a strong candidate in former Gov. Phil Bredesen, who is challenging Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R), a staunch Trump ally, to replace retiring Sen. Bob Corker (R).
If he wins in November, Bredesen would be the first Democrat elected to the Senate from the Volunteer State since Al Gore in 1990.