Election handicapper identifies four ‘toss-up’ states in 2024 cycle

The nonpartisan election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Thursday released ratings for its states in the 2024 presidential election cycle, identifying four of them as “toss-ups.”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball identified Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia as the four “toss-up” states so far in the 2024 cycle. Nevada has six Electoral College votes, Arizona has 11, Wisconsin has 10 and Georgia has 16.

The release of the state ratings was first reported by Politico Playbook. 

Sabato’s Crystal Ball also handicapped Democrats as starting off with 260 electoral votes from states that at a minimum lean Democrat, while Republicans started off with 235 electoral votes from states that at least lean Republican.

The nonpartisan election handicapper based its outlook on the high probability that President Biden and former President Trump will be their party’s respective nominees, writing in part that “as of now, Biden appears to be on course to renomination.”

“We have previously noted that Biden’s chances in the next election are very contingent on who the GOP decides to nominate as his opponent. As of right now, that person appears likeliest to be Donald Trump. That certainly doesn’t make Biden a shoo-in next year, but it does make him better positioned to win, which is reflected in our ratings,” Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote.

Biden won all four of the states in 2020, albeit by very slim margins; Nevada was the only state he won by more than a percentage point.