Democrats see a clear path to winning back the House majority in next fall’s elections, even as their worries grow that they could lose their hard-fought Senate majority.
In the House, Democrats need to pick up five seats to take back their majority, and the House map includes close to a dozen seats being defended by Republicans in only California and New York.
Democrats are already favored to win back the district held by scandal-plagued Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), per the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, and Republicans are defending another five toss-up seats in New York and New Jersey.
California is another state of opportunity for House Democrats, where Republicans are defending seven competitive seats.
Yet if the House is an opportunity that makes Democrats optimistic, the Senate is a source of angst for the party.
Democrats are defending 23 Senate seats next year compared to 11 for Republicans.
Three of the seats held by Democrats are in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio — states former President Trump easily won over President Biden in the 2020 election. Biden and Trump as seen as the favorites to be their parties’ presidential nominees next year.
Cook has Democratic seats in Ohio and West Virginia as toss-ups, along with Arizona, where Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who generally votes with Democrats, became a political independent last year. Another five Democratic Senate seats are rated by Cook as competitive.
“I don’t think it’s unfair to say it’s absolutely brutal for the national Democratic Party, as it always is in this cycle,” said John LaBombard, a former aide to Sinema, of the 2024 Senate map.
“Right now, it looks to me like we’re going to be competitive for both chambers, but especially the Senate map — there’s just a lot of things outside of our control, including not the least of which is ever-increasing partisanship in these red and battleground states — that’s going to be hard to overcome.”
Things look a lot rosier on the House side.
Only five Democrats are running in Trump-won districts, while 18 Republicans are running in Biden-won districts. A handful of those are first-term GOP representatives from New York: Santos and fellow Reps. Nick LaLota, Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler and Brandon Williams.
California will also play a pivotal role as Republicans defend House districts held by GOP Reps. John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Young Kim, Ken Calvert and Michelle Steel.
“As for these House seats — in New York alone, there’s enough pickup opportunities for us to win back the majority. There are more Biden districts that have GOP [representatives] right now than there are seats we need to pick up to win the majority. … It really just comes down to a math equation,” said a House Democratic aide who requested anonymity to speak candidly.
Democrats also believe that, as the minority party, they have a convincing case to make to voters.
“On the House side, you’ll see individual campaigns make Senate-like arguments. If you’re in California or New York or a Midwest seat where you know we only need five seats, it’s credible for you to say, ‘We can be the campaign to make Hakeem Jeffries the next Speaker,’ and that’s a very compelling argument to make,” the aide explained.
Jeffries is the House minority leader and likely would become the first Black Speaker if Democrats win the House.
If Democrats are to hold the Senate, they almost certainly will have to see Biden prevail in the presidential race and can lose only one seat. This assumes Democrats cannot pick off a Republican-held seat in the Senate — a possibility but a tall task given next year’s map.
This means the party needs incumbent Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.), Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio) to win reelection in states Trump won in 2020.
The party also will hope to hold on to Arizona, where Sinema is a wild card.
Assuming Sinema runs for reelection, it could set up a three-way race with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and a GOP nominee.
Democrats could still keep the majority if they lose one of those four seats but win the White House.
Tester and Brown give the party strong incumbents who have proven they can win reelection in tough climates.
Manchin, who faces an especially tough reelection bid in a state where Trump is popular, has said he’ll decide later this year whether he will run for reelection. Sinema has not yet said whether she’ll run again, but The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year that she was preparing to do so.
Democrats publicly say they are confident.
“Democrats will hold the Senate majority thanks to the strength of our battle tested candidates who are backed by a broad, unique coalition of voters in their states,” said Tommy Garcia, a spokesman for the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, in a statement. “Meanwhile, Republicans are hamstrung by their recruitment failures, vicious primaries, and flawed candidates who will have to answer for their party’s toxic agenda on issues like abortion.”
But privately, Democrats acknowledge the difficulty of retaining the Senate.
“The Senate map is tough. You’ve got a lot of swing people who actually have to toe the line up for reelection. Tester is a really tough defend,” said one Democratic operative.
Jon Reinish, a former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), suggested the Democrats’ Senate math also will hinge on what Manchin decides to do — and who his opponent will be.
“Everyone’s waiting to see if Manchin runs again, and of course, what happens in the primary on the Republican side in West Virginia. … The numbers seem to show that he would be much more competitive against [Rep. Alex] Mooney, who is really far to the right, though [it] would be very challenging to beat [Gov. Jim] Justice, who’s quite popular,” Reinish said.
In the House and Senate contests, Democrats are hopeful they can galvanize voters by pointing to abortion rights.
That issue helped the party retain the Senate majority in 2022, and although Republicans won the House, Democratic believe a backlash to the Supreme Court’s overturning of the Roe v. Wade decision held down their losses.
Student debt is another issue that could help Democrats turn out the vote. Even Republicans believe the Supreme Court’s recent ruling rejecting Biden’s student debt plan could turn out voters angered by the decision.
Some Republicans also see a tough climb ahead for them to keep the House. Republican strategist Rina Shah suggested members of her party have been too steeped in the culture wars and not focusing on bread-and-butter issues. The infighting among House Republicans, she explained, hasn’t helped.
“I do think it’s had its impression on voters who sort of feel like, ‘Well, who are the adults in the room? Why aren’t certain things getting done?'” Shah said.
Other Republicans are projecting a show of confidence.
Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who’s serving as the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP’s campaign arm, told The Associated Press on Wednesday: “I think we can actually pick up seats in California.”
“Coddling criminals, fueling inflation with reckless government spending, and demanding open borders that [exacerbate] the fentanyl crisis — that’s extreme Democrats’ party platform,” NRCC spokesman Will Reinert told The Hill in a statement. “No one in their right mind thinks this agenda is helping the country, which is why Republicans are going to grow our House majority next fall.”