Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s weaker-than-expected campaign is prompting other Republicans, such as Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, to take a new look at running for president, GOP strategists say.
These Republicans argue that DeSantis, long seen as the strongest potential challenger in a GOP primary to former President Trump, has failed to establish himself as the clear alternative.
“I think his high point was right after the last election, when he was the brightest spot on an otherwise somewhat disappointing night for Republicans,” said GOP strategist Vin Weber, commenting on the big DeSantis reelection victory for governor in 2022.
“Since then, he hasn’t come on as strong. It looks to me people are looking at it because he’s not as strong as he was before,” added Weber, who advised Republican presidential campaigns in 1996, 2004 and 2008.
Weber argued Trump also looks vulnerable, despite his massive polling lead, because of his mounting legal problems, which could make the race look more attractive to Youngkin and Kemp.
“The fading of a guy who was never the front-runner is not in and of itself a good reason for someone to take a look at running,” Weber said. “They have to perceive vulnerability in the front-runner. I think those two factors play into it together.”
John Merrill, who served two terms as Alabama’s secretary of state, said, “Gov. DeSantis is in trouble.”
“There were high expectations for Gov. DeSantis and his team when they entered the race. I think they were confident they were going to be the Trump-lite alternative,” he said. “What I mean by that is having the same emphasis that President Trump had, having the same following that President Trump [had].
“But the problem is he didn’t have a ground game in place that was able to allow him to continuously mature [Trump-inclined supporters] to make them the kind of supporters that he had to have,” Merrill added. “It’s a major problem for him.
“He waited too long because I think that he anticipated that people were just waiting on him to be the guy to come out and beat Trump and that is obviously not the case,” added Merrill, who hasn’t endorsed a candidate but plans to support Trump.
Republican strategists have pointed to other DeSantis missteps, such as his glitch-riddled campaign launch on Twitter Spaces, which was marred by audio feedback and stretches of dead air.
More recently, DeSantis drew sharp criticism after his campaign posted what LGBTQ Republicans blasted as a “homophobic” video highlighting Trump’s past statements supporting LGBTQ rights.
“Even though a lot of the Republican base would agree with him on those issues, it looks bad. It looks like he’s scapegoating a group of people. If that’s part of his effort to get to the right of Trump, it was a mistake,” Weber said of the video.
Other Republican strategists say DeSantis simply hasn’t been able to connect with GOP primary voters on a personal level.
DeSantis Thursday blamed his sagging poll numbers on the media.
“Well, I think if you look at the people like the corporate media, who are they going after?” he told Fox News. “Who do they not want to be the nominee? They’re going after me.”
Steve Cortes, a spokesman for a super PAC supporting DeSantis, acknowledged recently that the Florida governor is “way behind” in the polls and faces “an uphill battle” against Trump.
Trump leads DeSantis by an average of 32 points in recent national polls.
Former New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg (R) said it’s not too late for Youngkin or Kemp to enter the race and win the New Hampshire primary, which will take place a week after the Iowa caucuses next year.
“I don’t think it’s too late at all. Nobody’s getting traction,” said Gregg, who argued Trump’s lead is superficial and based on name recognition. Gregg did acknowledge Trump’s base, which GOP strategists estimate comprises a solid 30 percent of the Republican primary electorate, remains solidly behind him.
“If somebody wanted to get into this race and come to New Hampshire once a week for the next 16 weeks, they would be a force if they connected with people,” he said. “Youngkin seems to be a very strong guy.”
Gregg suggested a candidate like Youngkin could enter the race late and still have a chance of beating Trump in New Hampshire for two reasons.
“New Hampshire is notoriously late deciding. We can be two weeks from a major election, especially the primaries, and we don’t know who’s going to win. Very late-deciding voters,” he said.
“The second is there isn’t going to be a serious Democratic [presidential primary] race up here … That means we’re going to have a huge independent vote in the Republican Primary, huge. Independents outnumber both the Democrats and Republicans up here,” he said. “So a late entrant, who’s a legitimate, viable person who comes here and takes the time to meet people, I think they’re still viable.”
Republican strategists think DeSantis’s weakness has spurred Youngkin and Kemp to take a second look at running for president.
“I think the fact that people are taking a second look at the race speaks more to DeSantis faltering out of the candidate than anything else,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist.
But he predicted others won’t get into the race because of the appearance Trump is gaining steam.
A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,584 registered voters conducted from June 22-26 in Pennsylvania, a key swing state, showed Trump leading Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup, 47 percent to 46 percent.
An Echelon Insights poll of 1,020 likely voters in several presidential swing states showed Trump ahead of Biden 48 percent to 41 percent.
“I think at this point Trump is far and away the front-runner. That people are looking at [the race] for a second time really speaks to DeSantis’s weakness out of the gate,” O’Connell said.
Republican strategists who have been in touch with Youngkin’s and Kemp’s advisers say the Virginia governor is more likely to jump into the race but caution it won’t be easy for anyone to position themselves as a viable alternative to Trump, despite DeSantis’s struggles.
Youngkin has sent mixed signals about running for the White House despite only being in the second year of his gubernatorial term.
One Republican strategist said Youngkin’s camp “isn’t ruling anything out” yet, despite his statement in early May that he wouldn’t be running for president “this year.”
Kemp, meanwhile, hasn’t ruled out running for president, though he insists he’s “staying focused on the state of Georgia.”
“In politics, there’s always doors opening and closing and everything else,” he told CBS News recently.
A Republican strategist who keeps in regular contact with several Republican presidential campaigns predicted DeSantis will “retool” his super PAC in the next few weeks.
“They probably got another month to turn this thing around and if they don’t they’re going to have to bring someone and do a major retooling,” the source said.
The strategist said “it’s very likely Youngkin could get in,” adding that he’s “appealing to all stripes of Republicans” and “he’s actually appealing to some of the softer, more moderate elements — if you can call them that — of MAGA.”
The DeSantis campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University, said DeSantis or any candidate seeking to win the GOP nomination faces a “math” problem because Trump is dominating among “Tier 1” voters who are sure about whom they will support in next year’s primary.
“The problem for DeSantis, Youngkin or any of the other 13 announced candidates is that Trump owns [many] of the first-tier voters and the second tier is split 13 ways,” he said. “I don’t think there’s a pathway for anyone else getting in the race.
“Trump’s got a lock on that first, biggest chunk of votes and 13 other people are splitting second tier, so the math is very challenging,” he added.