This is Election Countdown, The Hill’s weekly newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Max Greenwood (@KMaxGreenwood) that brings you the biggest stories on the campaign trail. We’d love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at LHagen@digital-release.thehill.com and Max at MGreenwood@digital-release.thehill.com with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please).
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We’re 41 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 769 days until the 2020 elections.
Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and the woman who alleges that he sexually assaulted her in high school will be in the spotlight tomorrow, less than six weeks out from the midterms.
{mosads}Both Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford will testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee about the allegations, which have derailed the original timeline for the nominee’s confirmation.
It’s unclear just how the allegations and hearing could impact the November elections. Nevertheless, it has put Republicans in a difficult position: Do they side with Kavanaugh, and by extension President Trump, who has questioned the accusers’ accounts, and risk isolating female voters and moderates? Or do they take a more tentative approach to Kavanaugh’s nomination and risk igniting conservative ire?
It also remains to be seen how red-state Democrats vote on the nomination. Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) broke rank last year and voted to confirm Trump’s first Supreme Court nominee, Justice Neil Gorsuch.
But Gorsuch’s nomination, while opposed by most Democrats, did not carry the same kind of controversy as Kavanaugh’s. Heitkamp, Manchin and Donnelly are already facing tough reelection bids in states that Trump won by wide margins in 2016, and how they handle Kavanaugh’s nomination is sure to be watched closely.
The allegations against Kavanaugh come roughly a year after the start of the “Me Too” movement that exposed sexual misconduct allegations against many powerful men in business, politics and entertainment. That movement has helped energize female voters and ignited speculation of another “Year of the Woman,” marked by a surge in female candidates.
Race for the White House
We’re still 495 days away from the first-in-the-nation caucusues, but the 2020 presidential maneuvering in Iowa is already underway, reports The Hill’s Amie Parnes. Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.) a little-known congressman, has made Iowa a high priority and has already run over 3,100 ads there. Same goes for billionaire Democratic donor Tom Steyer, who’s launched more than 2,000 ads in the state in the past year calling for Trump‘s impeachment.
Also from Amie is a report that former Vice President Joe Biden is the one Democrat that Republicans fear the most about 2020. With an emerging field of potential progressive candidates, Republicans see Biden as the biggest hurdle to Trump’s reelection.
Former New York City mayor and billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg said he’ll delay making a decision about whether to run for president in 2020 until after the November midterms. In the meantime, Bloomberg has committed himself to the midterms, pledging to donate millions to candidates around the country.
Senate showdown
Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) defended Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) after Cruz and his wife were confronted by a group of protesters at a D.C. restaurant over Kavanaugh. “Not right that Senator Cruz and his wife Heidi were surrounded and forced to leave a restaurant last night because of protesters. The Cruz family should be treated with respect,” O’Rourke tweeted.
Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who’s running against Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), raised eyebrows again for his comments about the sexual assault allegations levied against Kavanaugh. In a Monday interview, Cramer questioned whether the allegations should “disqualify” the judge “even if it’s all true.” But when asked if the allegations are true and proved that Kavanaugh lied, Cramer said that would be disqualifying.
Cramer also sought to clarify his remarks from last week that the allegations are “absurd.” He said Monday that he was calling the timing of the allegations and comparisons to Anita Hill “absurd.” In regards to his comment that “nothing happened” in the allegations that Kavanaugh accuser Christine Blasey Ford described, Cramer explained, “My point was there was no type of intercourse or anything like that.”
Phil Bredesen, the Democratic Senate hopeful in Tennessee, said Tuesday that he has no plans to back Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) for a leadership post if he’s elected in November. Bredesen said in a debate that Congress’s current leaders make up “a lot of the problem” in Washington. “I can tell you right now that if I’m elected, and when I’m elected and go to Washington, I am not going to be voting for Chuck Schumer,” he said.
The office of Montana state auditor Matt Rosendale, who is challenging Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), dropped sanctions and fines against a Friedell LLC, a bail bond company, after meeting company representatives in 2017, the Montana Free Press reports. Friedell employees and family members had contributed nearly $13,000 to Rosendale’s 2016 bid for state auditor and his 2014 campaign for Congress for the purpose of “debt retirement.”
The chief counsel for the state auditor’s office told the Free Press that she was the one who decided to drop the legal action against Friedell, but that she was not aware of the campaign donations.
Survey says…
There have been a number of good polls for Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.). In a new Quinnipiac University poll, Nelson leads Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) by 7 points, 53 to 46 percent. Another poll from Marist College has Nelson up 3 points, 48 to 45 percent. Meanwhile, a poll by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida (UNF) shows the two tied at 45 percent.
Another poll by UNF released this week showed Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum leading Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) by 4 points in the Florida gubernatorial race. It’s only the latest in a series of polls that show Gillum, a progressive African-American candidate, ahead of his Trump-backed challenger.
And in Georgia, Democrat Stacey Abrams carries a 6-point lead over Republican secretary of State Brian Kemp in the state’s closely watched gubernatorial race, according to an internal poll commissioned by Abrams’s campaign released on Sunday.
The race to replace Sen. Jeff Flake‘s (R) is heating up in Arizona. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) leads Rep. Martha McSally (R) by just 3 points according to the latest NBC News/Marist poll.
Paper chase
Progressive group Acronym launched its “Knock the Vote” campaign on Monday. The group spent $3 million on the voter registration effort, targeting states that allow online registration.
With women expected to win a record breaking number of seats this fall, Michael Bloomberg announced he will donate to more women “than any individual ever has before.” He didn’t give a specific figure that he would contribute, but has previously said that he’s committing to spend $80 million to help Democrats in this cycle.
Hillary Clinton is hitting the fundraising circuit for Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) The former secretary of state and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee is slated to attend a fundraiser for the incumbent in Jersey City on Oct. 15, according to an invitation posted on Twitter by The New York Times’ Nick Corasaniti.
What we’re watching for
Trump will hold a rally in Wheeling, W.Va. on Saturday. He’s slated to hold another rally in Johnson City, Tenn. on Oct. 1.
Texas will see its second Senate debate between Cruz and O’Rourke in Houston on Sunday.
Coming to a TV near you
Sen. Bill Nelson (D) is dropping two new TV ads in his hotly contested bid against Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R). One spot features Nelson recounting his experience aboard the Space Shuttle Columbia, while the other takes direct aim at Scott for his record in the governor’s mansion. TV ads have been few and far between in Nelson’s re-election bid and the latest spots signal that the three-term Democrat is ramping up his campaign.
Andrew Gillum (D) is out with the first attack ad of his general election bid against Ron DeSantis (R). The 30-second TV spot goes after his Republican opponent for supporting a rollback of protections for people with pre-existing medical conditions.
Giffords PAC, the political arm of the gun safety group founded by former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), is pumping $1.5 million into an ad campaign opposing Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.). The first ad released in the campaign features a fictional text conversation between a mother and her daughter during a school shooting.
The ad war in North Dakota’s Senate race is heating up. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) released a new spot on Monday touting his economic record. A day later, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) debuted a new ad highlighting her work on legislation intended to crack down on websites that facilitate human trafficking.
The two spots underscore the increasingly competitive race between Cramer and Heitkamp, who is considered among the most vulnerable Senate Democrats up for re-election this year.
Wave Watch
Democrats see the controversy surrounding Kavanaugh‘s nomination to the Supreme Court and the GOP’s “war on women” as playing in their favor ahead of the midterm elections, The Hill’s Mike Lillis reports. They’re betting that the saga could further energize women voters in November. “Beware of the wrath of women scorned, Mr. President and Majority Leader McConnell,” Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.) said. “It will be your party’s downfall.”
The National Republican Congressional Committee is beginning to pull its support from select races as it seeks to shift money and resources to districts that are more likely to help the GOP maintain its majority, The Hill’s Melanie Zanona reports. In one example of the changing priorities, it pulled its remaining ad spending in the Pittsburgh area, where Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Pa.) is desperately fighting to hang on to his seat in a race against Rep. Conor Lamb (D).
Democrats once saw Florida’s 27th District as one of their best pick-up opportunities in 2018. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen‘s (R-Fla.) planned retirement opened a path for the party in the Democratic-leaning district. But Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, a well-known Cuban-American former broadcast journalist, is starting to give Democrat Donna Shalala a run for her money, The Hill’s Max Greenwood reports.
Kenna Sturgeon, Rachel Cohen and Maddie Rundlett contributed to this week’s Election Countdown.