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We’re 34 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 762 days until the 2020 elections.
Democratic House candidates’ staggering fundraising hauls are yet another sign of the widening enthusiasm gap between the two parties weeks out from the midterm elections.
We won’t see all fundraising reports until the Oct. 15 deadline, but here’s a glimpse into the massive hauls Democrats are raising in the third quarter, which runs from July to September:
{mosads}So far, California Democrat Andrew Janz tops the list with a jaw-dropping $4.3 million raised in the third fundraising quarter of 2018. Janz, a former county prosecutor, is running against Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), the House Intelligence Committee chairman who’s close allies with President Trump and represents a GOP stronghold in California’s San Joaquin Valley.
Janz’s high-dollar fundraising helps him compete in a tough district for Democrats. But it’s still an uphill battle in California’s 22nd district where Trump won by nearly 10 points and Nunes won reelection by more than 30 points in 2016.
Two Democrats — Amy McGrath in Kentucky and Josh Harder in California — have raised more than $3 million each. McGrath has $1.7 million in the bank, while Harder hasn’t said his cash on hand.
McGrath is running in a hotly contested race against Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) in a district that Trump easily won by double-digits. And Harder is running against Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Calif.) in a seat that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.
To put this in perspective, these are Senate-level numbers. In the second fundraising quarter of 2018, just seven of the 26 Senate candidates running in competitive races raised more than $3 million.
Here’s a breakdown of other House fundraising numbers that have been trickling out. Democrat Sean Casten, who’s running against Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.), raised $2.6 million, while Democrat Sharice Davids, who’s challenging Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.) raised $2.7 million. Both are running in suburban districts that Clinton won.
According to McClatchy, Davids outraised Yoder by $1.6 million. The GOP congressman, who’s running for a fifth term, raised $1.1 million in the third quarter, ending September with $1.3 million on hand.
Other Democrats who have surpassed the million-dollar mark: Dana Balter in New York, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan in Illinois and Aftab Pureval in Ohio.
Race for the White House
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) will give some thought to a 2020 White House run – just after the midterms are over. Her comments, made at a town hall event on Saturday, were among the firmest yet from a rumored Democratic presidential hopeful.
President Trump went after three potential Democratic challengers at a Monday rally. During a campaign event for Senate hopeful, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), the president launched attacks on Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden – all of whom are seen as prospective presidential candidates in 2020.
Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D) isn’t ruling out a 2020 bid, telling Politico that Democrats need a candidate who prioritizes climate change. He said: “I think our country needs a Democratic Party to produce a nominee who’s going to really be committed to climate change and defeating climate change and creating a clean energy economic message and clean energy jobs.”
Booker is slated to headline a fundraiser in Hollywood later this month. The event is expected to raise money for his 2020 reelection bid, but it’s almost certain to fuel speculation that the first-term Democrat could be eyeing a possible White House run.
And as Democrats contemplate challenging Trump in 2020, Republicans have finalized plans for their national convention. The RNC announced Monday that the Republican National Convention (RNC) is set to take place in late August in Charlotte, N.C., from Aug. 24 to 27, 2020.
Senate showdown
Missouri GOP Senate candidate Josh Hawley says he does not regret signing onto a lawsuit that would invalidate ObamaCare’s pre-existing conditions protections as the state’s attorney general. Majority Forward, a liberal super PAC, has released multiple ads attacking Hawley for his position on coverage for those with pre-existing conditions.
In that same conference call with reporters, Hawley called for a special counsel to investigate Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and her staff’s handling of the sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Hawley called on his opponent, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), to back his call for a probe, but she decried it as a partisan tactic.
Democrats are betting that the confirmation fight over Kavanaugh will boost their support among women voters in November and through 2020, The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports. “If there’s anything to be gained… it will be massive turnout by women in the midterm election that could add seats to a Democratic House majority and even flip the Senate,” said former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), who chaired the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), facing one of the toughest re-election bids of his Senate career, is expected to get a boost from Andrew Gillum, his party’s progressive, African-American nominee for Florida governor, The Hill’s Max Greenwood reports. Gillum rode a wave of support from African-American voters and progressive whites in his August primary. That could help turn more voters out for Nelson in November.
Survey says…
Five weeks out, we’re seeing a deluge of polls. Here’s a roundup of Senate race polls:
–In North Dakota: Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) leads Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) by 10 points in a new Gray TV poll, 51 to 41 percent. Eight percent are undecided.
–In West Virginia: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is polling ahead of West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) in a Gray TV poll, leading him 46 to 38 percent.
–In Missouri: McCaskill has a small lead over Hawley, within the CNN poll’s margin of error, 47 to 44 percent.
In Colorado’s sixth congressional district, Democrats and Republicans are releasing internal polling that shows very different races. From Democratic group End Citizens United, Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.) is trailing Democratic opponent Jason Crow by 11 points in a recent poll. Meanwhile, a poll conducted for Coffman’s campaign has the race in a dead heat, with Crow leading by 1 point.
Republican candidates still lead among voters in Southern states, according to an NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll out this week. Overall, 48 percent of respondents in the South said they planned to back GOP candidates compared to 43 percent who said they would vote for Democrats. One exception, however, is Georgia, where 47 percent said they would choose Democratic candidates and 43 percent would vote for Republicans.
Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) is leading his GOP opponent Bob Hugin by a narrow 2-point margin, according to a Stockton University poll released Monday. That’s well within the survey’s 4-point margin of error. The poll is the latest sign that the Senate race in New Jersey is tightening in a state that Trump lost handily in 2016. Still, most recent polls show the incumbent Democrat leading by wider margins. A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday gives Menendez an 11-point lead over Hugin.
Paper chase
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is planning to donate $20 million to Senate Majority PAC (SMP), the top super PAC supporting Democratic Senate candidates, The Washington Post reports. The contribution comes after Bloomberg already pledged to spend $80 million to boost Democratic candidates in the midterms. Most of that has gone to helping the party in its efforts to retake control of the House.
Bloomberg also announced this week that he would double his commitment to LCV Victory Fund, the League of Conservation Voters‘ PAC, to $5 million. He’ll also give an additional $1 million to support a clean energy ballot measure in Washington state.
The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), the Republican super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), has raked in $132 million in fundraising so far this cycle, including $40 million since the beginning of July. That’s the largest haul ever for the super PAC. By comparison, CLF raised $51 million in the entire 2016 election cycle.
What we’re watching for
Debate schedule:
—Oct. 5: North Dakota Senate debate in Fargo
—Oct. 8: Indiana Senate debate at Purdue University in Westville; Wisconsin Senate debate
—Oct. 12: Wisconsin Senate debate
Trump rally schedule:
—Oct. 4: Rochester, Minn. at 7:30 p.m. ET
—Oct. 6: Topeka, Kan. at 7:30 p.m. ET
—Oct. 9: Council Bluffs, Iowa at 7:30 p.m.
Coming to a TV near you
But first, a few things that won’t be coming to a TV near you. Republicans have begun pulling ad reservations from a handful of GOP-held districts, a sign that the party is doubting its chances of holding onto some seats in a year in which Democrats are widely thought to have an edge.
The Hill’s Reid Wilson reports that the National Republican Congressional Committee has cancelled more than $1 million in planned advertising boosting Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.) in Kansas’s 3rd District. He’s facing a tough challenge from Democrat Sharice Davids, a first-time candidate who stands to become the first Native American woman in Congress if she wins.
Yoder isn’t the only one to see outside ad spending cut. Either the NRCC or the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) have pulled the plug on planned advertising in the districts of Reps. Keith Rothfus (R-Pa.), Mike Coffman (R-Colo.), Mike Bishop (R-Mich.) and several others.
Michigan Senate candidate and veteran John James (R) launched his first TV ad of the general election that blames both parties for problems surrounding education, veterans issues and health care. He ends the ad, which doesn’t mention his opponent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), saying: “I’m John James and I hate politics, but I approve this message because I love this country and I’m ready to serve.”
Majority Forward, the 501(c)(4) affiliated with SMP, is rolling out a new ad in North Dakota’s Senate race hitting Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) over Trump’s ongoing trade war with China. Democrats in the state have seized on the trade war as they seek to hold onto Senate seat currently occupied by Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.).
Wave watch
Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas), who’s considered among the most vulnerable House Republicans this cycle, introduced a resolution this week calling to protect people with pre-existing medical conditions. While the resolution is nonbinding, it’s a sign of the lengths some Republicans are going to fend off attacks from Democrats, who have seized on failed GOP efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
Democrats are surging in races across the Midwest as they seek to rebuild the so-called “blue wall” that came crashing down in 2016 when Trump stunned Democrats with wins in states, like Michigan and Wisconsin, The Hill’s Reid Wilson reports. Now, voters in those states largely appear poised to hand a series of victories to Democrats, driven largely by dissatisfaction with the way Trump has handled in his job.
Roughly two months after he jumped into the midterms by backing 81 Democrats in races across the country, former President Barack Obama handed endorsements to 260 more hopefuls nationwide. Among them: Florida gubernatorial hopeful Andrew Gillum, Nelson, and Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), who’s running to succeed Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.).
Some prominent Democrats did not make the list, like Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), who’s challenging Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) for his Texas Senate seat. A spokesperson for Obama hinted, however, that it was a strategic decision. “President Obama is keenly aware that Republicans want nothing more than to invent a foil,” the spokesperson told The Hill Monday.
Election Countdown was written by Lisa Hagen, Max Greenwood, James Wellemeyer and Kenna Sturgeon.
This story was updated at 10:09 a.m. on Oct. 4.