Cook Political Report shifts 7 more races towards Dems

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, shifted seven congressional races on Wednesday toward Democrats less than five weeks before the midterm elections.

Cook moved two races that were previously considered “toss-ups” to “lean Democrat.” 

One is the race in Kansas’s 3rd Congressional District, where Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) is facing a tough race. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has canceled more than $1 million in advertising in the coming weeks that had been aimed at bolstering Yoder’s campaign.

{mosads} Cook also reclassified Michigan’s 11th Congressional District as “lean Democrat” after it was previously considered a “toss-up.” Incumbent Rep. David Trott (R) is not seeking reelection, setting up a race between Haley Stevens (D) and Lena Epstein (R).

The site also shifted two races that previously “leaned Republican” to “toss-up.” One involves Rep. Carlos Curbelo’s (R-Fla.) reelection bid, while the other involves Rep. Mia Love’s (R-Utah) campaign for a third term. Both are considered young, rising stars in the GOP.

Meanwhile, Rep. John Katko (R) had his race moved from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” amid a challenge from Democrat Dana Balter in New York’s 24th Congressional District.

Balter recently announced that she raised more than $1.5 million in the last quarter, according to multiple reports.

Cook also shifted seats held by Reps. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) and Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” meaning that the districts could come into play in the case of massive Democratic gains in November. 

We’re also moving 2 other GOP seats out of solid at @CookPolitical:#MI03: Amash (R) – Solid R to Likely R#NY21: Stefanik (R) – Solid R to Likely R

Both incumbents are still heavily favored, but worth watching in a wave.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 3, 2018

Republicans are attempting to stave off a Democratic effort to retake control of the House and Senate in November.

Democrats need to pick up a net 23 seats in the House to reclaim the majority, and must have a net gain of two seats in the Senate to secure a majority there.

A RealClearPolitics average of generic congressional ballot polls shows Democrats with a roughly 7-point lead.