Ohio vote on abortion seen as 2024 bellwether

An Ohio ballot measure in November that would enshrine abortion access in the state constitution stands to be a bellwether on the issue ahead of next year’s elections. 

Groups on both sides of the issue say the vote in November could provide more insight into how salient the battle over abortion access remains more than a year out from the overturning of Roe v. Wade. 

In particular, the vote will be closely watched by Democrats, who have signaled abortion rights will be at the center of their platform in next year’s presidential election. 

Earlier this month, abortion-rights advocates submitted 710,000 signatures for a ballot measure on abortion, twice the 413,000 needed for a ballot measure. On Tuesday, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose certified abortion-rights advocates had enough signatures to place their measure on the ballot in November.  

“Seeing this level of enthusiasm in Ohio shows that this is going to be a salient issue and is an issue that is top of mind for voters no matter where they live,” said Ryan Stitzlein, vice president of political and government relations at NARAL-Pro Choice America.  

A USA Today Network/Suffolk University poll released Monday found that 58 percent of voters said they supported the abortion-rights amendment, while only 32 percent said they opposed it.  

“It’s another data point in what we have seen since the Dobbs ruling last June, is that the decision by the Supreme Court and the subsequent actions that Republican, anti-abortion lawmakers have been making are totally out of step with the American people,” Stitzlein said.  

Anti-abortion advocates say the poll doesn’t tell the whole story of what is happening on the ground in Ohio.  

“In November, voters will look more closely at the proposed amendment and see that it covers more than just abortion by its own language,” said Mark Weaver, an Ohio-based GOP strategist. “The poll doesn’t ask them that.”  

The proposed amendment says “every individual has a right to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions, including but not limited to decisions on contraception, fertility treatment, continuing one’s own pregnancy, miscarriage care, and abortion.” 

Anti-abortion advocates argue the amendment would allow minors to obtain abortions and undergo gender-affirming procedures without parental consent.  

“Nowhere in the entire amendment does the word ‘woman’ appear,” said Amy Natoce, press secretary at Protect Women Ohio, an anti-abortion rights coalition. “The word adult is not used anywhere. There is no mention whatsoever of age restrictions. Instead the ACLU and its attorneys who wrote the amendment intentionally chose the very broad word ‘individuals.’”  

The group has committed $25 million in ads that echo the parental rights message that has been a rallying cry for conservatives and Republicans since 2021. One of the group’s ads released in May features footage of President Biden saying, “There’s no such thing as someone else’s child” and concludes with the message, “They’re coming for your parental rights.” 

Critics and abortion-access advocates say the messaging and the ads are incorrect and designed to mislead voters with a message that has worked for Republicans in the past.  

“The big thing that the campaign is going to have to do is fight back a lot of disinformation and fear-mongering that the other side has already started but will continue to push through the election,” Stitzlein said.  

The amendment is one of two elections that will take place in the second half of the year. In August, Ohio will hold a special election on Issue 1, which would raise the threshold for any future amendment to pass from a simple majority to 60 percent of the vote. On top of that, organizers would need to meet signature requirements in all of Ohio’s 88 counties as opposed to 44 counties.  

Turnout in the August special election appears to be particularly high for an off-year special election. According to LaRose’s office, more than 155,000 Ohio voters have already cast their ballots early in the special election.  

Abortion-rights advocates claim Republicans brought the August special election forward to sabotage the November vote to enshrine abortion in the state constitution.  

“They want to prevent Ohioans from being able to vote on reproductive freedom because they are seeing what we are seeing, which is a majority of Ohioans are saying they will vote yes on reproductive freedom in November,” said Lauren Blauvelt, vice president of government affairs and public advocacy at Planned Parenthood Advocates of Ohio. 

Stitzlein echoed this, saying anti-abortion advocates “know that they can’t win on this issue, so they try to change the rules.”  

Abortion-rights advocates also point to leaked audio of LaRose saying the August election was “100 percent about keeping a radical pro-abortion amendment out of our constitution.”  

However, LaRose has also said preventing abortion was just one of the reasons to support Issue 1.  

“There are a lot of good reasons to support Issue 1 — preventing a radical abortion amendment this fall is just one of them,” the secretary told WEWS in Cleveland.  

Anti-abortion advocates say the August vote is about protecting the state’s constitution from outside special interest groups.  

Natoce accused outside groups of trying to “buy Ohio’s constitution.” 

“We have very weak standards for passing constitutional amendments compared to the rest of the country, which leaves our constitution very vulnerable to out-of-state groups,” she said.  

While early voting turnout has been higher than normal ahead of the August election, it’s unclear what it will look like going into November during the off-year, when turnout is normally lower across the board. Abortion-rights advocates point to the abortion-related ballot measures last year, saying that although they took place in a midterm year, the issue was still highly motivating.  

“What we have seen in the elections where the question was brought directly to the voters, the side of reproductive freedom was successful in every single one of them,” Stitzlein said.