Poll: Dem Donnelly has 4-point lead in Indiana Senate race

Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) has a four-point edge over businessman Mike Braun in Indiana’s closely watched Senate race, according to a new Gravis Marketing poll released Wednesday.

About 44 percent of likely voters support Donnelly, while 40 percent support Braun. About seven percent say they would vote for Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton and ten percent say they are undecided. The four-point margin falls within the poll’s margin of error. 

{mosads}Donnelly, one of ten Democratic senators defending seats in states President Trump won in 2016, has a job approval rating that is barely net-positive, with 40 percent of likely voters approving of the job he’s doing, compared to 39 percent who disapprove. About 22 percent say they are unsure, and more likely voters strongly disapprove than strongly approve by a 19-15 margin.

Braun may get a boost from the president, who won Indiana by nearly 20 points.

The poll shows Trump has a 50 percent approval rating among likely voters, while 45 percent disapprove. 

The president has endorsed and campaigned with Braun, tweeting in August, “Will be going to Evansville, Indiana, tonight for a big crowd rally with Mike Braun, a very successful businessman who is campaigning to be Indiana’s next U.S. Senator. He is strong on Crime & Borders, the 2nd Amendment, and loves our Military & Vets. Will be a big night!” 

Will be going to Evansville, Indiana, tonight for a big crowd rally with Mike Braun, a very successful businessman who is campaigning to be Indiana’s next U.S. Senator. He is strong on Crime & Borders, the 2nd Amendment, and loves our Military & Vets. Will be a big night!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 30, 2018

A RealClearPolitics average of polls in the race shows Donnelly with a four-point lead, while The Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss up.”

Gravis Marketing surveyed 377 likely voters from Oct. 12-16. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent.

Democratic hopes of winning the Senate majority have always been dim given a playing field that has the party defending 10 seats in states won by Trump. In recent weeks, the party’s path to a Senate majority has narrowed as Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) has fallen behind in polls in North Dakota, and as GOP incumbents and candidates in several states appear to have bettered their chances for victory.