Trump, DeSantis rivalry ratchets up with ‘critical’ Iowa fundraiser

Former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) are set to appear at the same event in Iowa on Friday for the first time since joining the 2024 race, as both men look to shore up support in the Hawkeye State.

The annual Lincoln Dinner is an important fundraising event for the Iowa GOP and regularly draws candidates vying for the party’s nomination in the state, which is the first to vote in what will be a long line of primaries and caucuses to determine the nominee. 

But this year’s event comes as Trump and DeSantis find themselves in the middle of a bitter and escalating rivalry, and underscores the critical nature of the state for both men as the presidential race gets into full swing.

Craig Robinson, a longtime Iowa-based GOP strategist, said the Lincoln Dinner will be “critical” for DeSantis, who has continued to trail Trump in polls.

“I think he’s looking for something to jumpstart his campaign,” Robinson said, noting that DeSantis hasn’t left other events this cycle “being the candidate that everyone was talking about.”

“Donald Trump has the knack of making sure that he’s the only one that’ll be talked about after that event,” Robinson said.

Trump has maintained his large lead over the GOP field in national and state polls despite mounting legal woes. He has led DeSantis, his closest challenger, by at least a double-digit margin and often as much as 20 or 30 points.

The Florida governor earlier this month attributed the widening gap between the two candidates to the media, and to sympathy he says Trump received after the former president was indicted in Manhattan earlier this year as part of an alleged hush-money scheme.

But in an implicit acknowledgment of his campaign’s struggles, DeSantis has looked to reset his strategy in recent weeks, cutting a third of his staff in an effort to reduce expenses and stepping up his media appearances, including an interview on CNN.

The DeSantis campaign expressed optimism about his prospects heading into the dinner as the governor makes the state a top priority.

“Gov. DeSantis continues to pick up additional support in Iowa with each visit. No one will outwork the governor in the Hawkeye State, and he is just getting started,” said campaign spokeswoman Carly Atchison.

A DeSantis campaign official trumpeted DeSantis’s efforts in Iowa, arguing that he has built up “unprecedented” support among state legislators there while defending Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) after Trump attacked her over her decision to officially remain neutral in the GOP primaries.

The official’s comments came amid a bus tour DeSantis launched this weekend through all 99 counties in the state.

“It’s about which candidates puts in the time to help build a party in Iowa and to show the voters of Iowa that they believe it’s important,” the official told The Hill. “Gov. DeSantis is putting in the work: He’s on the ground for his fourth visit of the campaign and will be back next week for the state fair.”

In a further sign of how critical the state is, Trump preempted the pair’s appearance at the Lincoln Dinner with a video on his Truth Social platform warning Iowans against the Florida governor.

“Ron DeSanctimonious would be a complete disaster for the American farmers and the great people of Iowa!” Trump said in the video, released Thursday. 

As the GOP White House hopefuls gather Friday evening, Vice President Harris will also be in Iowa to host a separate event to discuss the state’s abortion ban, offering a counterpoint to the gathering of Republican figures who are largely in favor of abortion restrictions.

Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence, and his former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley will also be among the lineup of 2024 candidates at the event in Des Moines.

For DeSantis, whose campaign has fueled critical headlines for weeks, the Lincoln Dinner provides a opportunity for him to pitch his candidacy before an influential crowd. But Robinson, the Iowa strategist, warned that it could serve just as much as an opportunity for other Republican 2024 candidates such as Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.) or entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who have shown signs of momentum in recent polls.

Though DeSantis appeared earlier this year as “the clear challenger alternative to Trump,” Robinson said, DeSantis’s sagging poll numbers now suggest he’s “in the second tier with everyone else” as the crowded field jostles for who will be the best alternative to the former president.

Dennis Goldford, a professor of political science at Drake University in Des Moines, said much of DeSantis’s candidacy could be riding on his success in the Iowa caucuses next year.

“If he does not do well here, or especially if he does what people might consider poorly, then the logical conclusion on the part of a lot of people around the country … they might say, ‘This isn’t really going to go anywhere. We got to put our bet on another horse,’” Goldford said.

GOP strategist Michael Zona, a former staffer for Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), said the state party’s dinner can offer the White House contenders a chance “to connect with the generally open-minded group of voters, often willing to give another look at a second- or third-tier campaign.”

“These types of speeches should be viewed by candidates who aren’t in the lead — and at this point, that’s all but one — as an opportunity to reset the narrative or reintroduce their brands,” Zona said.

Josie Albrecht, a Republican strategist who is working with the state party to plan the dinner and is staying neutral in the 2024 race, said the candidates will be able to “mingle” with those present at the event after the dinner ends to answer follow-up questions, making the event “not like a rubber-chicken dinner.”

“I think what makes this dinner exciting is this is really the first big event with everyone in one place where you can see everybody up against each other,” she said. “Depending on how the debates and things shake out, it may be one of the only times where you see everybody at once.”

Albrecht added that the dinner is only one part of a long campaign to win in Iowa and will not be a “make-or-break” moment.

But Iowa-based pollster Ann Selzer said the dinner will require “every bit of political acumen.” She said the visuals of the event and the reaction each candidate receives from those in attendance will be influence how a candidate performs.

“It isn’t just that the candidate is going to show up and we’ll see what happens. This will have been carefully thought out about what the order of the candidates is and what to do with that order. What is the opportunity that’s there?” she said.