Poll: Sinema leads McSally by 6 points in Arizona Senate race

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) holds a 6-point lead over Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) in the race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), according to a new NBC News/Marist poll released Tuesday. 

Sinema gets the support of 50 percent of likely Arizona voters in the sample, while 44 percent support McSally. Six percent of likely voters say they will vote for another candidate or are undecided. Sinema led by 3 points in the same poll from September.

When Green Party candidate Angela Green is added to the poll, Sinema holds a three-point lead over McSally. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.

{mosads} Sinema’s lead is powered by substantial margins over McSally among Hispanics, independents and women, the pollsters said. Meanwhile, McSally holds slimmer leads among whites and men. 

Sinema is also buoyed by a net-positive favorability rating. Likely voters find her favorable by a 6-point margin (48 percent to 42 percent), though that shrunk from a 13-point margin in September.

Likely voters give McSally a net-negative favorability rating (43 percent of likely Arizona voters who responded viewed  her positively compared to 45 percent who viewed her negatively), a similar result from last month’s poll.

About 44 percent of likely Arizona voters approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 49 percent disapprove.

The poll was conducted after several explosive devices were sent to prominent Democrats, former intelligence officers and CNN, but largely before a shooting Saturday at a Pittsburgh-area synagogue that left 11 dead.

Arizona represents one of the Democrats’ few pickup opportunities in the Senate in a map that has the party defending 10 seats in states Trump won in 2016.

Many election prognosticators believe it is likely the Republicans keep the Senate and may even expand on their 51-49 majority. 

The Cook Political Report rates the Arizona race as a “toss up,” while an averaging of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics has Sinema up 0.2 points. 

The NBC News/Marist poll surveyed 506 likely voters from Oct. 23-27. The sample of likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 points.