Democrats mobilize on abortion amendments after Ohio win

Abortion rights advocates are looking to follow up on a win in Ohio this week with efforts in numerous states to enshrine abortion protections into state constitutions in 2024. 

The defeat of a ballot initiative in Ohio is the latest in a series of wins for Democrats and reproductive rights advocates. The proposal, called Issue 1, would have made it harder to amend the Ohio Constitution ahead of a November ballot measure to codify abortion rights in the state constitution.

Activists expressed optimism following the Tuesday election that an abortion rights amendment is in a strong position to pass in November, and the result could inspire other similar efforts throughout the country.

Democrats now say the effort to add abortion measures to the ballot in 2024 could help fracture the GOP in races next year and add to Democratic momentum that has been building in the year since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

“It gives people something to vote for, not just against, and it frames up the choice for the candidates. And it’s been a powerful choice, and people have been very clear. They’re choosing reproductive freedom,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster and strategist.

Abortion-related measures have been on the ballot in half a dozen states in slightly more than a year since the court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned Roe v. Wade.

The side in favor of abortion rights has won in each of those elections — in liberal-leaning, swing and conservative-leaning states.

Voters rejected proposed amendments that would have made rolling back abortion rights easier in Kansas, Kentucky and Montana. They also voted to enshrine abortion protections in the state constitution in Vermont, California and Michigan during last year’s midterm elections.

Polls throughout the 2022 election season indicated the court’s ruling overturning Roe was a significant turning point in the race, as Republicans led in the generic congressional ballot before the ruling was handed down, but Democrats began to take a lead after.

Exit polls showed abortion came in second as the issue that voters identified as the most important to them, and those who said so voted for Democrats by more than a 3-to-1 margin.

With the defeat of the measure in Ohio that would have raised the threshold for amending the state constitution and thus made adding abortion protections more difficult, activists are turning their attention to an abortion rights measure in Ohio in November and many other states where advocates are trying to get similar measures on the ballot in 2024.

Lake noted that the turnout for the Ohio measure was just more than 3 million voters, which she said was almost equal to the turnout from the state’s 2014 elections. She said the issue, which became a proxy for the battle over abortion rights, was “definitely energizing,” with 700,000 early votes and 30,000 voters who did not participate in the 2022 midterms, primarily women and African Americans.

“It definitely was mobilizing, energizing, and more so on the pro-choice side. It was very persuasive. And I think it’s a roadmap for the future for candidates,” she said.

Efforts are underway in states like South Dakota, Florida and Missouri, where abortion rights activists are trying to gather signatures to put measures on the ballot in 2024. A group of organizations in Arizona filed to add a ballot measure Tuesday to guarantee abortion access.

If these measures receive enough signatures and make it to the ballot, they will be voted on as a presidential election and many congressional races are also playing out, which strategists said could bode well for Democrats running alongside them.

Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg said the issue could split the Republican coalition in the 2024 general election, as was seen in 2022, helping Democrats.

Polling has largely shown bipartisan support for at least some amount of access to abortion. An Associated Press-NORC poll conducted at the first anniversary of the Dobbs decision found almost two-thirds of respondents said abortion should be legal in most or all cases, including 38 percent of Republicans.

Ohio Democrats said after Issue 1 was defeated that they had a new hope for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in his reelection bid next year given that their message on reproductive rights seems to be resonating with voters. Brown is a Democratic incumbent representing a state that voted for former President Trump twice, but the “no” vote on Tuesday comfortably outpaced Brown’s two most recent elections.

Rosenberg noted Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the two leading candidates for the Republican presidential nomination, have tied themselves to abortion restrictions. Trump appointed three justices who gave key votes in overturning Roe and DeSantis signed a six-week ban in his state.

“And so the question is that, is the abortion issue, however it is placed into the decision-making process of voters, does this splinter the Republican coalition and make it far more difficult for them to win? It sure looks that way. And they should be very worried about what this means for 2024,” he said.

Rosenberg argued that an “antidemocracy piece” exists to the abortion issue with Republicans trying to advocate for abortion bans “taking people’s long-held rights away” that could further hurt the GOP beyond considerations of reproductive rights.

“There comes a point where when a party tries to take something of this significance and shove it down everybody’s throats against their will, then they should anticipate some kind of significant backlash, which is what’s happening,” he said.

President Biden has slammed “MAGA Republicans,” a reference to followers of Trump who backed his false claims of the 2020 election being stolen, for taking away abortion rights. His 2024 campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, told CNN on Thursday that Biden will continue to emphasize protecting abortion rights as he campaigns for reelection.

The success of abortion measures is also giving hope to Democrats in more conservative states that may face more uphill battles to get their amendments passed.

Moné Holder, the senior director of advocacy and programs for Florida Rising, a progressive organization that is one of the groups trying to get a measure on the ballot in Florida, said the coalition is hopeful that having the measure on the ballot will energize voters and increase turnout, even as Florida has increasingly trended red in recent years.

Holder said the coalition has collected more than 500,000 signatures of the roughly 900,000 that are needed for the measure to go to the ballot.

“At the rate that we’re going, it’s just a short period of time, not only does that put a bright light on the campaign as a whole but definitely is a true testament of the will of voters, how they feel about getting it on the ballot, how they will actually turn out to make sure that it’s passed. So we feel really good about it,” she said. 

Holder also said the measure could give voters enthusiasm but also the efforts to restrict abortion access in general.

“So whether it’s an actual measure or a topic of discussion around where a candidate or incumbent who’s seeking reelection, where they stand on the issue of abortion is definitely one that will come up in the standpoint that voters will have to assess and decide if they want to serve them,” she said.

But Jackson McMillan, a Tampa-based Democratic strategist, expressed concern about the prospects of the ballot measure and Democrats in the state even if it receives enough signatures, which he said appears likely. He said DeSantis’s gubernatorial reelection last year was seen as a bit of a referendum on abortion as DeSantis went on to sign greater restrictions into effect and Democratic turnout was poor in that race.

McMillan said states like Ohio, where initiatives are being proposed, have an infrastructure that Florida does not have to rally support for the measure. He also noted Florida requires a 60 percent threshold to amend its constitution, the same as what the measure that failed in Ohio would have required, making amendments harder to pass.

“So we’re going to have that much more difficult of a time. Deck would definitely be stacked against it,” he said.