The Washington Post said Sunday that its poll with ABC News showing former President Trump beating President Biden is likely an “outlier,” citing other polls that show the two candidates in a dead heat.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll released Sunday found Biden trailing Trump with 42 percent support, compared to Trump with 51 percent support.
In its analysis of the poll, the Post said Trump’s strong lead is “significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat,” a difference that suggests the data point is probably an outlier.
Gary Langer, a public opinion researcher, pointed out in an ABC News analysis that question order could be a factor. The survey asked first about Biden and Trump’s performance, economy sentiment and various other issues such as the looming government shutdown, Ukraine aid and abortion, before questioning participants on their candidate preferences. Langer said this is customary for the polls at this stage in the election cycle, as these questions are more relevant than candidate support at this point.
“Since many results are negative toward Biden, it follows that he’s lagging in 2024 support,” Langer wrote. “Nonetheless, those sentiments are real, have been consistently negative in recent surveys and clearly mark Biden’s challenges ahead.”
Message-sending was also suggested as a possible factor, meaning a hypothetical vote-preference this early in the election may not actually suggest what’s to be expected at the polls next year.
“It’s best seen as an opportunity for the public to express its like or dislike of the candidates,” Langer wrote. “Biden is broadly unpopular and doubts about his suitability for a second term are extensive; wherever they end up in more than a year, a substantial number of Americans today are taking the opportunity to express their displeasure.”
Pointing to Biden’s poor performance ratings, economic discontent and concerns over his age likely all are relevant factors, Langer argued recent news coverage has largely focused on negative public discourse about the president, while Trump’s criminal indictments continue to fuel his base while he touts being the frontrunner in the GOP primary race.
The poll was conducted Sept. 15-20 from a national sample of 1,006 adults, using the ABC/Post poll’s longstanding methodology. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points.
Langer called the demographic results and partisan preferences “typical,” with 25 percent of respondents identifying as Democrats, 25 percent as Republicans and 42 percent as independents. The Post said the “unusual makeup of Trump and Biden’s coalitions” in the survey could also be to blame.
Polls in recent weeks have continued to show Trump and Biden in a very tight race, with a NBC News poll also released Sunday showing the candidates in a dead heat at 46 percent among registered voters. The latest YouGov/Yahoo News poll released last week similarly found them tied at 44 percent among registered voters.