Sun Belt likely to take House seats from Rust Belt after next census

At least seven states in the Sun Belt and the West are likely to gain House seats in the next round of reapportionment after the 2020 census, at the expense of a shrinking Rust Belt that is losing population at a steady clip.

New projections of short- and long-range population trends based on U.S. Census Bureau data show Sun Belt states are poised to gain as many as eight seats in the House of Representatives once reapportionment takes effect in the 2022 elections.  

{mosads}Texas, where a stunning population boom has added 3.6 million new residents since 2010, will see its congressional delegation grow by at least two and perhaps as many as three seats, according to projections made by the nonpartisan political data analyst Kimball Brace at Election Data Services.

Texas has gained seats in every reapportionment except two since it joined the U.S. in 1845.

Florida’s congressional delegation is all but certain to expand to 29 seats, two more than it has today. Florida has added 2.5 million new residents since the last census.

In just the past year, it added 322,000 residents, including many who fled Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria devastated the island territory.

Arizona is likely to win its 10th seat in Congress, marking the seventh straight reapportionment process in which the state’s delegation has grown. And North Carolina will add a 14th seat in Congress, according to Brace’s projections.

Three Western states — Oregon, Colorado and Montana — will also add to their delegations.

Montana will get a second seat for the first time since the 1990 census, when it dropped down to one seat. Oregon’s delegation will hit six seats, an all-time high and its first gain since the 1980 census.

Those seats will all come from states where population has either declined in recent years or where growth has not kept up with the rest of the nation.

Pennsylvania is likely to see its delegation shrink to 17 seats, the 10th straight reapportionment process in which the Keystone State has seen a decrease.

The New York delegation is likely to shrink two seats, to 25 members, under new maps that will likely be drawn by Democrats who hold the governorship and both chambers of the legislature for the first time in modern memory.

Ohio’s delegation will drop to 15 seats, the sixth straight time they have given up a seat.

Michigan and Illinois are both likely to lose seats for the fifth straight census. Alabama is likely to lose a seat, marking the third straight census in which a Gulf Coast state has lost a seat.

Two states will set unhappy records: Rhode Island is likely to lose one of its two seats, pitting Reps. David Cicilline (D) and Jim Langevin (D) against each other if both decide to seek reelection in 2022; Rhode Island last had a single member of Congress back in 1789.

And West Virginia is likely to lose a seat too, dropping its delegation to just two members for the first time ever.

And some of Brace’s population estimates show California is on the brink of losing one of its 53 seats in Congress. The nation’s most populous state added almost 158,000 residents last year, but that pace might not be fast enough to sustain the size of its current delegation.

Short-term projections show California losing the seat, which would be the first time in the 160 years it has been a state that its delegation shrank.

Longer-term trends beginning with the 2010 census, which may not adequately capture late-breaking movement in the years before a new national count, show California holding on to its current delegation size, but only just: California’s 53rd seat would be the 435th and final seat allocated under those projections.

With so many seats at risk and in play, some by just a few thousand residents here or there, last-minute population fluxes will almost certainly have an impact on the outcome.

After hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, Louisiana lost so many residents to neighboring states that it lost a congressional district.

This time around, a housing crisis and several massive and devastating fires in California may prove to have the same effect.

The estimates also underscore the importance of the census itself, which will be conducted beginning April 1, 2020.

Those who study the decennial undertaking say they are concerned that the Census Bureau does not have the funding it needs to operate a full and complete count, and they are concerned by several controversies that threaten to politicize a normally apolitical effort.

The Trump administration is fighting half a dozen lawsuits, including one brought by blue states like California, over a decision to ask respondents whether they are U.S. citizens, something opponents believe will lead to an undercount in states where the population with undocumented immigrants is high.

Career officials at the Census Bureau have objected to the question, though Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross decided to include it in the survey next year.

At the same time, the Census Bureau does not even have a confirmed director after the last confirmed director, John Thompson, retired in mid-2017.

The Trump administration nominated Steven Dillingham to fill the job in July, though the full Senate has not voted on the nomination with only days to go before the current Congress adjourns.

Several states are planning major campaigns to encourage people to participate in the census; California is likely to budget tens of millions for its so-called Complete Count effort.

“The change in administration, the lack of a Census Director, shortness of funds appropriated to the Bureau, and how well individual states conduct their own Complete Count campaigns could have a profound impact on how well the 2020 Census is conducted, and therefore the counts that are available for apportionment,” Brace said Thursday.

The United States population grew to 327.2 million by July 1, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau released Wednesday. That increase of just 0.6 percent is the slowest rate of growth since before World War II.

The bulk of that growth has come in states with good weather and booming economies, according to the Census Bureau. In the last year, Texas added more than 379,000 residents, and Florida added 322,000 new people. 

By contrast, nine states lost population over the last year, four of them in the Rust Belt.

New York and Illinois both hemorrhaged more than 40,000 residents, West Virginia lost more than 10,000 and Connecticut continued its slow bleed of a few thousand residents a year.

Outside the Rust Belt, Louisiana lost 10,000 residents, while Hawaii and Mississippi each lost 3,000 people. Alaska and Wyoming also saw population declines.