Biden edges Trump in survey, former president sees wide support on economy, border

President Biden has a slight edge over former President Trump among likely voters, according to a recent poll, while the former president showed wider support from voters on the economy and border.

Biden garnered 51 percent support compared to Trump’s 49 percent among those who say they are certain they will vote in the presidential election, a Marquette Law School poll released this week found.

However, registered voters who said they are less than certain they will vote showed a strong preference for Trump, who received 62 percent support in that group, compared to Biden’s 37 percent. An analysis of the poll pointed out that this finding suggests the importance of voter mobilization efforts ahead of the 2024 election.

Among all of the registered voters surveyed, regardless of their voting intention, Trump had a slight edge at 51 percent, to Biden’s 48 percent. The results echo other recent polling, which has also shown a close hypothetical match-up between the two candidates.

The poll found a significant share of voters are still initially reluctant to choose either of the candidates, a trend the poll has seen since the question was first posed in November 2021. The most recent survey did see a modest drop in that reluctance, with 12 percent saying they would vote for someone other than Biden or Trump, compared to 19 percent who said the same in the last poll.

When those reluctant respondents were pushed to choose between the two candidates, Biden led by a wide margin over Trump, at 55 percent to 42 percent.

Voters feel Trump would do a better job at handling the economy and immigration and border security, with 52 percent choosing the former president and 28 percent choosing the incumbent.

The Biden administration has touted the president’s economic plan, dubbed “Bidenomics,” which seeks to tackle inflation, increase jobs and keep unemployment levels low. However, stubborn inflation over the past two years and increasing interest rates from the Federal Reserve have sparked harsh criticism of Biden’s economic policies, with national polls showing voters still feel little economic relief at home.

Last month, the White House ramped up its attacks against Trump’s policies, warning against what it characterized as “MAGAnomics” and criticizing job creation under the Trump administration.

The Biden administration has also tried to fend off criticism from both sides of the aisle over the president’s immigration policies, as Republicans push for greater border security and Democrats demand more action on asylum-seekers.

The Biden administration has maintained a somewhat cautious approach to immigration and border security, a stark contrast to Trump, who made securing the border a central focus of his 2016 presidential campaign.

The poll was released the same day as the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) announcement that it will waive 26 federal laws to allow border wall construction in Starr County, Texas, which is experiencing “high illegal entry.” The move is the administration’s first use of an executive power often used by Trump to fund projects along the southern border. 

The poll was conducted Sept. 18-25 among 1,007 adults nationwide. It has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.