Republican pollster Frank Luntz said he is most focused on voter turnout and the results of the Virginia legislative elections of all the contests happening Tuesday.
“Turnout,” Luntz said during an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” when asked the top factor he would be looking at.
“Who’s participating? Are Republicans going to the polls or are Democrats particularly active? I’m watching Virginia, because that could have an impact on the presidential race,” he said.
The elections on Tuesday are happening in an off year without a presidential or regular congressional races, which usually leads to lower turnout. But there are several high-profile contests that could drive more turnout than normal in a few specific states.
One of the most-watched states for the election will be Virginia, with all seats of the state Senate and state House up for election. The results will likely be key to determining the success of Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) agenda for the remaining two years of his term.
Luntz noted that Virginia had been a leaning Republican state going into the start of the century before becoming purple and then leaning Democratic in more recent years. But he said the state might shift back to Republicans in this election.
“It’s possible that under Gov. Youngkin, it may be back with the GOP. We got to find out tonight,” Luntz said.
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Virginia had voted Republican in presidential elections throughout much of the second half of the 20th century before voting Democratic since 2008. It also elected Democratic governors in two consecutive elections in 2013 and 2017, before electing Youngkin in 2021.
Democrats narrowly control the state Senate, while Republicans have a narrow majority in the state House.
Youngkin has campaigned heavily for Republican candidates in the legislative races and has fueled speculation that he may throw his hat in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, especially if Republican candidates perform well in Tuesday’s elections. He has not directly ruled out a run.
Luntz said he believes Youngkin is looking at running and knows that some people are talking about it. But he said not many people across the country are familiar with the Virginia governor.
“It’s not a nationwide phenomenon, and I wonder if it wouldn’t be similar to Rick Perry when he jumped in as governor of Texas,” Luntz said, referring to Perry’s 2012 GOP presidential run. “He went to the top of the polls within two weeks, and then he petered out.”