Trump approaches uncatchable in Iowa

Former President Trump’s growing lead in Iowa is quickly closing the window for candidates such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley to catch up, less than six weeks from the state’s Republican caucuses.

A new poll from NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom shows Trump at 51 percent support among likely Iowa caucusgoers, marking an 8-point increase from October. DeSantis and Haley, meanwhile, trailed at 19 and 16 percent, respectively. 

The former president has also received good polling news at the national level. A Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday showed Trump polling at 59 percent support, while Haley and DeSantis trailed at 15 percent and 14 percent, respectively. 

But it’s Trump’s rise over the 50 percent threshold in Iowa that is notable because it further solidifies his status as the likely Republican presidential nominee, putting pressure on DeSantis and Haley to up their game in the critical state. 

“Obviously the Trump campaign has to be really happy about this, because it’s the first time he’s been over 50 [percent] in Iowa,” said David Kochel, an Iowa-based Republican strategist, noting his loss to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in the 2016 Iowa caucuses. 

“It’s been the place where he’s looked somewhat vulnerable,” Kochel said. “He looks a lot less vulnerable today than he did before.” 

On top of his commanding lead in the Iowa horse race, the latest poll also found that Trump’s supporters in Iowa are more committed than those of his opponents; 70 percent of Iowa Trump supporters said their mind was made up about backing the former president, while 30 percent said they “could still be persuaded” about supporting another candidate. 

Those numbers are flipped for DeSantis. For Haley, 34 percent of her supporters said their mind was made up about backing her, and 65 percent said they could still be persuaded to support another candidate. 

Some operatives and experts caution that the poll should be taken with a grain of salt, noting its 4.4 percent margin of error.

“[The poll] doesn’t necessarily mean that you can completely write off DeSantis and Haley, but it’s getting harder,” said Timothy Hagel, an American politics professor at the University of Iowa. 

But upsets have been known to happen in Iowa on both sides of the aisle. Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (R) won the Iowa caucuses in January 2012 after polling in single digits just a few months before. In 2008, then-Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D) defeated then-New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) in a major Iowa upset. 

The DeSantis campaign brushed off news of the poll, saying the findings do nothing to change its strategy in the state.

“Republicans know that public polling doesn’t mean a thing, as we’ve seen most recently from the expected nationwide red wave that didn’t take effect in 2022,” said Andrew Romeo, communications director for the DeSantis campaign. “Instead, what will decide Iowa is the historic ground game that Ron DeSantis has built, which is exactly why he has the support of 42 state legislators, over 120 county chairs, over 100 faith leaders, 1,000 precinct captains, Governor Kim Reynolds, and evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.” 

DeSantis has made Iowa a top priority, which has led to high-profile endorsements. The Florida governor also completed his 99-county tour of the state earlier this month, illustrating the resources his team has poured into the state. 

Haley has also worked to up her ground game in the state. Last month, her campaign announced a $10 million ad buy in Iowa and New Hampshire. The former ambassador got a major boost in the national primary landscape last month, when she was endorsed by the mega-conservative donor network Americans for Prosperity. 

“There is a growing consensus that Nikki Haley is the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump and Joe Biden,” a Haley campaign spokesperson said. “Nikki trounces Biden in the general election by a whopping 17-points while Trump barely squeaks by, and Ron DeSantis doesn’t beat Biden. With Nikki on the ballot, not only will conservatives take the White House, we will grow the House majority, take back the Senate, and save our country.”

While Monday’s poll shows Haley’s standing in Iowa virtually unchanged, her allies point to what they say is good news in national-level polling. A Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday showed Haley beating President Biden by 17 points, 51 percent to 34 percent. The same poll showed DeSantis tied with the sitting president at 45 percent, and in a match-up against Trump, Biden trails 47 percent to 43 percent. 

However, Republican primary voters do seem to be taking the general head-to-head match-ups into account, at least when it comes to their responses in the polls.

“I’ve always said that the only way Trump can be stopped is if it’s one-on-one, but this poll makes it look like even that is difficult,” Kochel said. “There’s probably some room to beat him in New Hampshire, but you can’t do it if it’s DeSantis, Christie, Haley, Trump. He’ll win against the field every time.”

The argument that the field would start consolidating behind a candidate other than Trump hasn’t happened following the exits of former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.), and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum from the primary.

“I can’t imagine that either DeSantis or Haley is going to drop out, and if they’re effectively splitting the not-Trump vote, then that seems to suggest it’s going to be extremely hard for either of them to beat Trump, let alone come in a strong second place,” Hagel said. 

Republicans note that Iowa has broken late in the past but say Trump’s large lead in the Hawkeye State makes it difficult to compare this cycle to past cycles. 

“You can have five points at the margin,” Republican strategist Ford O’Connell said. “This is 32 points. It’s pretty groundbreaking even for Iowa.”