5 things to watch in the DeSantis-Haley Iowa debate

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley are set to go head-to-head in one last live debate before the Iowa caucuses as they fight to stand out as the top alternative to former President Trump.  

CNN will host the pair of presidential hopefuls in a Wednesday night debate at Drake University in Des Moines, with Trump set to skip the event. Just five days later, voters in the early state will cast their ballots in the first critical test for the Republican presidential field. 

DeSantis and Haley will take the stage at 9 p.m. ET. Here’s what to keep an eye on in their last showdown before the caucus. 

Do Haley and DeSantis go after Trump? 

Trump’s absence has loomed large over previous GOP debates, and his rivals have called him out for his refusal to take part in the events.  

Given his front-runner status, Trump’s competitors are seen as vying for second place, and both Haley and DeSantis have stepped up attacks as they race against the clock to cut into his lead before Iowa votes on Jan. 15.

Haley has warned of “chaos” in another Trump term. DeSantis has hit Trump over immigration and abortion. Trump, in turn, has been working to smother his rivals’ momentum. 

Observers say they’ll have their eye on how much time Haley and DeSantis spend taking digs at Trump from the Wednesday night debate stage.  

“There’s a nervousness that they feel about going too hard on Donald Trump, because [he] is such an outsized, dominant figure in the Republican Party,” said Leonard Steinhorn, a professor of public communication at American University.  

Haley and DeSantis have to walk a fine line of pitching themselves as the best candidate to take on President Biden, the likely Democratic nominee, in the fall, without driving away the Trump supporters they need to get the nomination.  

Steinhorn said he’ll be looking to see “how hard” they hit the former president.

“Bottom line is: They don’t want to alienate the Trump base.”  

How combative does the debate get? 

As Haley and DeSantis ratchet up their attacks against Trump, they’re also taking swings at each other in their battle for second place.  

January kicked off a media blitz for the presidential hopefuls, with Haley and DeSantis appearing in back-to-back CNN town halls last week, plus more town halls with Fox News on Monday and Tuesday of this week.  

With just two candidates on the Wednesday night stage, “there’s nobody else to go after except for each other,” said Todd Belt, director of George Washington University’s graduate political management program. 

But while Haley and DeSantis will likely take shots at each other, a two-person showdown may make for a less rowdy event than the more crowded stages in previous debates, Belt said.  

“They’re going to be able to give longer answers to the questions and provide more policy details, instead of fighting and bickering with each other to try to make sure that they can get more time,” he predicted.  

Which candidate emerges looking stronger? 

Haley has been on the rise in New Hampshire, which holds its first-in-the-nation primary on Jan. 23, getting closer to Trump in the state — though she still trails him by double digits.  

DeSantis has perhaps more at stake in Iowa, which he’s made a top campaign priority, and where he’s still neck and neck with Haley for second in the polls.  

The Hill-Decision Desk HQ aggregate of polls puts Trump at 52.3 percent support in Iowa, followed by DeSantis at 17.5 percent and Haley at 16.9 percent.  

Strategists say they’ll be looking next week at the margins between first, second and third place in the caucus as signals of candidate momentum moving forward to New Hampshire and beyond. The Granite State could serve as a backstop for Haley, while DeSantis might have more of an uphill climb if he doesn’t fare well in Iowa.  

That’s why the Wednesday CNN debate could be a critical opportunity for both candidates to capture attention in the Hawkeye State just before ballots are cast.

“It’s important for the two of them to make their closing arguments as powerfully and eloquently as possible,” said Aaron Kall, director of the University of Michigan’s debate program. “Because there’s a lot of uncertainty, and so they want to make sure that they finish the campaign strong before voting starts.”  

How many people watch the debate? 

The GOP presidential debates this cycle saw falling ratings as the year went on, which some chalked up in part to the unique landscape of the race as a second-place contest among Trump’s rivals.  

While 12.8 million tuned in to the first debate back in August, roughly 4 million watched the fourth debate in December.  

A recent Suffolk University-USA Today survey found a majority of registered voters don’t plan on tuning in to the CNN Iowa debate, including roughly half of Republicans.

Trump’s Fox News town hall might further pull focus away from the debate. The former president’s previous debate counterprogramming has included a campaign rally and a prerecorded interview, but Wednesday will see a competing event on a major network at the same time as the CNN event.  

“Much of the conversation about the debate is going to depend on … what Donald Trump says and does on Fox,” Steinhorn said. “The debate could be overshadowed by something Donald Trump does, and I think that’s the X factor in all of this.” 

Does the debate move the needle next week? 

Strategists have questioned the influence of the debates held so far this cycle, with Trump as the incumbent and de facto nominee. 

But others have pointed to Haley’s momentum in recent months, linked to standout debate performances — suggesting the events do have some sway.

Tammy Vigil, a Boston University professor of media science with a focus on political campaigns, said the debate isn’t likely to move the needle for “die-hard supporters” for either Haley, DeSantis or Trump — but still has potential to sway undecided voters or Republicans wary of the former president.  

The debate could also offer Iowans supporting either Haley or DeSantis “ammunition” to try and pull support for their chosen candidate, Vigil said.  

GOP strategist Mark Weaver argued that “there’s no foreseeable event” that will stop Trump from getting the eventual Republican nod, though the debate could give DeSantis in particular a boost in the state.  

“Most Iowa caucusgoers pay attention to political news, and that includes how the candidates do in debate,” Weaver said.