Former President Trump is projected to win the Iowa GOP caucus, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to secure second place, according to Decision Desk HQ Monday.
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is poised for third place, while Vivek Ramaswamy announced Monday night he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Trump after coming in fourth.
The win in Iowa is a boon for DeSantis, who invested heavily in the Hawkeye State and faced what some say was a make-or-break moment in the caucuses. Recent polling had shown Haley edging past DeSantis in the first-in-the-nation contest.
The top three remaining GOP candidates now gear up for New Hampshire, where polls show Trump as the heavy favorite in next week’s primary. Haley has carved out a double-digit lead over DeSantis in the Granite State, receiving 30 percent to his 6 percent, according to polling from DDHQ and The Hill.
You can follow where each candidate states in New Hampshire courtesy of DDHQ and The Hill here.
Read below for a recap of the 2024 Iowa GOP caucus.
Haley pivots to New Hampshire after third place finish in Iowa
Nikki Haley turned her attention to New Hampshire following her third-place finish in Iowa, emphasizing her position in the polls in other states.
Haley said in a speech to supporters that she enjoyed her time campaigning in Iowa but would be back in New Hampshire tonight to move on to the next step in her campaign. She declared that the result in Iowa made the contest for the GOP nomination a “two-person race.”
“Tonight, Iowa did what Iowa always does so well,” Haley said.
She emphasized polls showing her leading President Biden in a hypothetical matchup while arguing nominating him and Trump would create another toss-up race.
“Our campaign is the last best hope of stopping the Trump-Biden nightmare,” she added.
—Jared Gans
Ramaswamy suspends 2024 bid, endorses Trump
Vivek Ramaswamy on Monday night announced he’s dropping out of the 2024 GOP presidential race following a disappointing showing in the Iowa caucuses, the latest announcement to winnow down the primary field as former President Trump dominates.
“As of this moment, we are going to suspend this presidential campaign,” Ramaswamy told supporters in Iowa.
— Caroline Vakil
Biden fundraises off Trump victory
President Biden issued a plea for supporters to donate to his campaign in the wake of Trump’s victory in Iowa.
“Looks like Donald Trump just won Iowa. He’s the clear front runner on the other side at this point,” Biden wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.
“But here’s the thing: this election was always going to be you and me vs. extreme MAGA Republicans. It was true yesterday and it’ll be true tomorrow,” Biden added, posting a link to a fundraising page.
—Brett Samuels
DeSantis poised for second, Haley third in Iowa GOP caucus
DeSantis is poised to finish second in the Iowa GOP caucus, while Haley is poised for third place, according to a projection from Decision Desk HQ.
Both candidates were eclipsed, however, by former President Trump, who as of this publication had just over 50 percent of the vote.
Prior to the results, an average of Iowa surveys by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill found Trump at 53 percent, Haley at 18 percent and DeSantis at 15 percent. Both an Emerson College Polling survey and a poll from NBC News/Des Moines Register/Medicom showed Trump in first place, while Haley notched second place.
— Caroline Vakil
Iowa GOP Chair praises early results
Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann praised the early results of the evening.
“Early results indicate that we are on track to have around 100,000 Iowans participating in the 2024 First-in-the-Nation Iowa Caucus,” Kaufmann said in a statement. “Iowans braved record-low temperatures after a blizzard blanketed their state just days earlier to deliberate with members of their community about the future of our country and participate in true, grassroots democracy.”
Kaufmann’s statement comes as the DeSantis campaign slammed news outlets for calling the caucuses for Trump.
The caucus meetings began at 8 p.m. Eastern, expected to vary in length across locations in the state, with some results available in as little as half an hour and others not anticipated until later this evening, according to The Des Moines Register.
–Julia Manchester
Trump congratulates rivals
Trump praised his GOP primary rivals as they lagged far behind him in the caucuses.
“I want to congratulate Ron and Nikki for having a good time together. We’re all having a good time together. I think they both actually did very well. We don’t know what the outcome of second place is,” Trump said, eliciting some laughter in the crowd of supporters.
“I also want to congratulate Vivek, because he did a hell of a job,” Trump added. “He came from zero, and he’s got probably 8 percent. That’s an amazing job.”
—Brett Samuels
Trump speaks at Iowa HQ
The former president took the stage at his campaign’s Des Moines watch party at 9:52 local time, where he was joined by several surrogates and campaign staffers.
“I really think this is time now for everybody, our country to come together,” Trump said. “We want to come together. Whether it’s Republican or Democrat or liberal or conservative, it would be so nice if we could come together and straighten out the world and straighten out the problems.”
—Brett Samuels
VP contenders praise Trump for Iowa win
A handful of potential Trump running mates should he win the nomination were quick to congratulate the former president for his win in Iowa and urge the party to unite behind him.
“It’s time to unite the Republican party,” South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter. “We need to put all our time, treasure, and talents into defeating Joe Biden and taking our country back – NOT figuring out who is in 2nd place.”
“Congratulations to President Donald Trump on his massive victory at the Iowa Caucuses! Thank you to the people of Iowa for your incredible support in delivering this historic win,” Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) said in a statement, calling on Trump’s rivals to drop out of the race.
Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R), who previously served as Trump’s White House press secretary, congratulated her former boss, adding “First, Iowa. Next, the White House!”
—Brett Samuels
Turnout estimated to be around 110,000
Decision Desk HQ estimates turnout at the caucuses will be at 110,000, a notable drop from the 2016 Iowa contest.
Monday was the coldest election day in the history of the Iowa caucuses, with temperatures in many parts of the state dropping below zero. Nearly 187,000 voters participated in the 2016 Iowa caucuses.
If the estimate holds, the number participating this year would still be less than the 2008 and 2012 caucuses, when about 120,000 participated.
Decision Desk also updated its projected delegate count, predicting Trump will win at least 16 delegates. DeSantis and Haley are projected to win at least four, and Ramaswamy is projected to win at least one.
—Jared Gans
DeSantis spokesperson says crowd alerted of Trump win as first lady spoke
West Des Moines— A spokesperson for the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down told the Hill at DeSantis’s watch party that Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis was speaking at a caucus precinct in Pella when caucus goers started to see push notifications that former President Trump won the caucuses.
DeSantis’s campaign and allies have hit the media for calling the race for Trump early.
— Julia Manchester
Key DeSantis ally blasts networks’ early call for Trump
One of the big storylines emerging from tonight is the decision by news organizations to call the race for former President Trump while voting was still underway — and, reportedly, in some cases had not even begun.
The DeSantis campaign and its allies, in particular, are enraged by what transpired.
Ken Cuccinelli, a founder of Never Back Down, the main super PAC backing DeSantis, told The Hill via text that the decision to call the race was “absolutely outrageous.”
Cuccinelli said he had been watching a CNN discussion where analysts were talking about the arguments being made at a caucus site on behalf of each of the candidates.
“The voting hadn’t started yet, all while below them was a CNN chyron calling the race for Trump,” Cuccinelli said. “People are obviously getting these in caucuses where the voting hadn’t begun, or certainly wasn’t closed.”
Cuccinelli added: “The supposed guidance of not calling a race before the polls closed got reversed tonight.”
— Niall Stanage
Supporters trickle in to DeSantis watch party
WEST DES MOINES— Gov. Ron DeSantis’s supporters are beginning to make their way into his watch party at the Sheraton in West Des Moines. It’s mostly media in the watch party room, but supporters are starting to make their way to the side of the room and are mingling outside in the hotel lobby.
The DeSantis campaign responded to news of Trump’s early win on X.
“Absolutely outrageous that the media would participate in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote. The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet,” DeSantis spokesman Andrew Romeo said on X.
— Julia Manchester
Trump leads among college, non-college grads: CNN poll
Former President Trump leads in the caucuses among both college and non-college graduates, according to a CNN poll.
The entrance poll of voters found Trump leading among non-college graduates with 65 percent of the vote, compared to 14 percent for DeSantis and 11 percent for Haley. He has a more modest lead among college graduates, only taking in 35 percent to Haley’s 29 percent and DeSantis’s 25 percent.
Trump currently leads his competitors with more than half of all votes counted, according to the latest vote tally.
—Jared Gans
Trump win called before crowd forms at caucus-night party
DES MOINES — Former President Trump’s apparent victory in the Iowa caucuses was unusual in at least one regard.
The Associated Press and several news outlets called the race for Trump so early that his caucus night party is virtually deserted, except for the media contingent.
Trump is expected to speak here later by which time the now-empty space will be thronged by his followers.
See more of the event from The Hill’s Niall Stanage here.
— Niall Stanage
Trump says he’s ‘invigorated’ by Iowa win
The former president spoke to Fox News Digital shortly after Decision Desk HQ and other news outlets called the Iowa caucuses for him, saying he felt “greatly honored.”
“It really is an honor that, minutes after, they’ve announced I’ve won—against very credibly competition—great competition, actually,” Trump told Fox News Digital.
“I feel really invigorated and strong for our country,” he added. “We want to Make America Great Again—the greatest slogan ever—and the fact is, that’s what we did.”
— Brett Samuels
Speaker Johnson congratulates Trump for winning Iowa
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) congratulated former President Trump on Monday night after Trump won the Iowa GOP caucus.
“Congratulations to President Donald Trump for a resounding victory in Iowa! Today, Republican voters turned out amid harsh conditions and showed their resolve to bring an end to the failed economic and open border policies of President Biden,” Johnson said in a statement.
“We appreciate every candidate, volunteer, and voter who braved the elements and participated in the great caucus tradition,” he added.
Decision Desk HQ called the state for Trump 46 minutes after voting kicked off for the caucus.
-Caroline Vakil
Trump super PAC calls on rivals to drop out
Make America Great Again Inc., a super PAC supporting former President Trump’s 2024 bid, called on other candidates in the primary to end their campaigns in light of Monday night’s results.
“The people of Iowa sent a clear message tonight: Donald Trump will be the next Republican nominee for President. It’s now time to make him the next President of the United States,” Alex Pfeiffer, MAGA Inc.’s communications director, said in a statement.
“Joe Biden’s team just announced a massive war chest. Every dollar spent by President Trump’s primary losers is a dollar that could be fighting Joe Biden. Once the DC RINOs are finished crying in their cocktails over tonight’s results, it’s time for Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy to face reality and stop wasting time and resources.”
— Brett Samuels
Decision Desk HQ makes preliminary delegate estimate
Decision Desk HQ has made its initial projection for delegate allocation for the caucuses, predicting that former President Trump will win at least 15 delegates.
It is also projecting that DeSantis and Haley will each win at least two. The two of them are locked in a battle for second after Trump was projected as the winner.
A total of 40 delegates are up for grabs in the Hawkeye State.
—Jared Gans
DeSantis spox: Early race call shows ‘media is in the tank for Trump’
A spokesperson for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) slammed media outlets for projecting former President Trump would win the caucuses roughly 30 minutes after they got underway.
“Absolutely outrageous that the media would participate in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote,” Andrew Romeo wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter. “The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet.”
— Brett Samuels
Trump wins Iowa caucuses
Former President Trump is projected to win the Iowa caucuses, according to Decision Desk HQ.
Votes are still trickling in to determine who will come in second — Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis.
Trump addresses caucus-goers in Clive
The former president spoke at a caucus site in Clive, Iowa, moments before multiple news outlets called the race in his favor.
“Get out and vote,” Trump said. “This is the beginning. Right now it’s starting, and this is the start of something very important. I think it’s the most important election in the history of our country.”
“I would appreciate your vote,” he added. “I think i deserve it.”
— Brett Samuels
AP, NBC call for Trump
Trump is projected to win the Iowa caucuses, according to the Associated Press and NBC Monday.
The former president has gained 70 percent of the vote, according to AP, with DeSantis in second at 15 percent and Haley in third at 8 percent as of 8:30 p.m. EST.
Trump heading to caucus location
Former President Trump was headed to a caucus location as proceedings got underway.
Dan Scavino, one of Trump’s senior aides, posted a video on social media of the former president’s motorcade on the road near Des Moines.
Trump surrogates were also fanned out across the state on Tuesday to boost support for the former president.
— Brett Samuels
First results trickle in from Iowa caucus
The first results have begun to trickle in from the Iowa caucus around 8:22 p.m. ET.
Former President Trump is so far leading by 189 votes with 319 votes collected in total, according to data collected by Decision Desk HQ. Those votes only compromise a fifth of a percentage of the total votes anticipated to be cast, meaning there’s a long night ahead and many more votes to be counted before declaring a winner in Iowa.
-Caroline Vakil
Trump holds big lead in Iowa polls
Former President Trump holds a big lead in polling of Iowa voters heading into the state’s caucuses, with his closest rivals far behind him.
Trump stands at just above 50 percent in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling average, while Nikki Haley is in second at about 18 percent and Ron DeSantis is close behind in third at about 16 percent.
One major question if Trump does go on to win Iowa is if he can claim more than 50 percent or if he is denied an outright majority.
—Jared Gans
The Hill’s Julia Manchester reporting live from Des Moines
Iowa caucuses open
The Iowa Republican caucus meetings started to kick off around 8 p.m. Eastern on Monday, and results could start rolling in soon as voting gets underway.
The caucus meetings are expected to vary in length across locations in the state, with some results available in as little as half an hour and others not ready until later this evening, according to The Des Moines Register.
The critical contest is taking place at individual precinct locations in all 99 Iowa counties.
Caucus-goers and campaigns alike are up against freezing winter weather in the state, as candidates urge Iowans to brave the cold to cast their votes.
— Julia Mueller
National Weather Service confirms coldest Iowa caucus in history
The National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed that this year’s Iowa caucuses will be the coldest in its 50-year history.
NWS in Des Moines said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the caucuses will be the coldest for Iowans since the first time they were held in 1972. The high in Des Moines was 1 degree, while the high in the city of Waterloo was 1 degree below zero, both about 15 degrees colder than the previously coldest caucuses.
The coldest caucus in Des Moines had been in 1972, with a high of 25 and low of minus 4. The coldest in Waterloo had been in 2000, with a high of 26 and a low of minus 11.
—Jared Gans
Trump expected to attend trial Tuesday
Trump is expected to appear Tuesday in New York City at a trial over defamation damages involving writer E. Jean Carroll.
The former president is also scheduled to hold a rally in New Hampshire at 5 p.m. Tuesday ahead of the state’s primary next week.
The trial will determine what Trump owes in defamation damages after a jury concluded last year that Trump sexually abused Carroll.
— Brett Samuels
Roads begin to clear, turnout questions remain with caucuses soon to begin
DES MOINES — It’s a waiting game here at the media hub at the Iowa Events Center with the caucuses soon to begin.
Banks of TV cameras and lights are array along with about 100 desks for print reporters. But for the moment the punditry is based on the little more than guesswork.
Some high-profile surrogates for the campaigns have been spotted around the venue, including Eric Trump and Jason Miller, a senior advisor for the Trump campaign, as well as Ken Cuccinelli, one of the founders of the main super PAC supporting Ron DeSantis, Never Back Down.
The key question remains the weather. Iowa GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann told The Hill that his expectations for turnout have risen as the roads have been plowed and cleared.
“I feel good about where things are at,” Kaufmann said, though he cautioned that the all-time turnout record of around 186,000 in 2016 would probably not be broken.
“I’m getting reports all over the state at this point. I’m getting reports people are already coming to those caucuses,” he added.
— Niall Stanage