Trump maintains lead, Haley snags second in final poll before Iowa caucuses

DES MOINES, Iowa — Former President Trump, the current frontrunner in the GOP presidential primary, holds a wide lead among registered Republicans in Iowa days before the state’s presidential caucuses, according to a new poll.

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley snagged the second spot, slightly overtaking Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who heavily centered his campaigning on the Hawkeye State. 

The former president solidified his status as a favorite in Iowa by holding a nearly 30-point lead in the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll released Saturday. Trump has the backing of the most committed caucusgoers, an important factor considering that Iowa is dealing with freezing temperatures and blizzards that could affect turnout on Monday. 

According to the poll, Trump amassed first-choice support from 48 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers, holding a 28-point lead over Haley, who slightly narrowed the gap from the last time the same poll was conducted. DeSantis came at 16 percent while Ramaswamy, whom Trump seemed to turn against days before the opening contest, is at 8 percent. 

The latest data showed shifts from the last Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll, which was conducted in December, when Trump had a 32-point cushion. 

“He is still in a commanding position, but there is slippage,” J. Ann Selzer, the Iowa pollster who conducted the survey, said about Trump. “The game appears to be for second place, without a real challenger on the horizon.”

Haley’s second place in the poll represents a 4-point jump after garnering 16 percent of support in December. Ramaswamy’s support grew three points from December. Like Trump, DeSantis also saw a dip in support, going from 19 percent in December to 16 percent in January.

However, the poll did have some good news for DeSantis. The former governor performed well with evangelical voters, a crucial voting bloc in the state. Twenty-two percent selected them as their first-choice candidate. 

In terms of enthusiasm, a whopping 49 percent of Republicans who said Trump was their first choice said they were “extremely enthusiastic” about him, while 34 percent and 22 percent said they were “very enthusiastic” and “mildly enthusiastic”, respectively. Twenty-three percent of Republicans who said DeSantis was their first choice said they were extremely enthusiastic about the governor, while 39 percent and 33 percent said they were “very” and “mildly enthusiastic.” 

Haley saw a larger gap of enthusiasm in the poll, with only nine percent of Republicans who said she was their first pick saying they were “extremely enthusiastic.” Thirty percent said they were “very enthusiastic” to support Haley and 49 percent said they were “mildly enthusiastic.” 

The poll comes as Haley has seen a surge nationally, particularly in New Hampshire, the state that is second on the GOP election schedule. Haley performed well with independents and those with college diplomas, according to the poll. Thirty-three percent of independents picked her as their nominee. 

Haley surpassed DeSantis in an Iowa poll for the first time earlier this week when a Suffolk University poll showed her at 20 percent in the state, while DeSantis garnered 13 percent in the same poll. Trump held a dominant lead in the Suffolk University poll, coming in at 54 percent support. 

DeSantis and Haley have been locked in a battle for second place as Trump continues to dominate the field. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ painted a similar picture in Iowa before the Des Moines Register poll on Saturday, showing Trump at 53. 6 percent, followed by Haley at 17.5 percent. DeSantis comes in third place in the average with 15.4 percent. 

If Trump were to win Iowa with a similar margin to 48 percent, it would be the largest margin of victory for a nonincumbent in an Iowa presidential GOP caucus

The poll of 705 likely Republican caucusgoers was done between Jan. 7 and 12. Overall, it has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.7 percent.

Updated at 9:48pm.