Nikki Haley faces an uphill slog in the race for the GOP nomination after a disappointing third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses kept Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the race and blunted the former South Carolina governor’s momentum.
Haley and her supporters had hoped a second-place finish, as projected in one promising Iowa poll over the weekend, might have brought a stronger result in Iowa that could have given her a real boost ahead of the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23.
Instead, Haley enters the Granite State seeking to reel in the runaway winner in Iowa, former President Trump, even as she continues to battle with DeSantis.
Finishing in third means “the hill in New Hampshire is steeper,” said Dante Scala, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, who described her caucus results as not “the ride out of Iowa she was hoping for.”
“You don’t get that many opportunities to deliver a clear message to New Hampshire voters, and one of those opportunities is the day after Iowa, if you can credibly say, ‘I have momentum.’ And I think that opportunity was lost,” Scala said.
After the results became clear, Haley insisted she was now in a two-person race and that she had no interest in taking part in debates with anyone other than Trump or President Biden.
“We’ve had five great debates in this campaign,” Haley said in a statement from her campaign. “Unfortunately, Donald Trump has ducked all of them. He has nowhere left to hide. The next debate I do will either be with Donald Trump or with Joe Biden. I look forward to it.”
The likelihood of Trump agreeing to a debate with either Haley or DeSantis remains slim, given the political benefits he’s seen from ignoring the scrums.
Trump won the Iowa caucuses with 51 percent of the vote, according to polling data from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, while DeSantis finished with 21.2 percent and Haley earned 19.1 percent.
“I think she would’ve loved to clear the field with a second-place finish in Iowa,” Republican strategist Alex Conant said of Haley. “Instead, the non-Trump vote remains divided going into the critical New Hampshire primary.”
Conant argued that while Iowa didn’t get her a big boost, by finishing close to DeSantis she emerged in a relatively strong position. New Hampshire strategists also suggested voters in the state might not be paying much attention to the Iowa outcome.
Jim Merrill, a GOP strategist based in the Granite State, argued Haley may even have “overperformed” in Iowa, given her lower expectations compared with those of DeSantis, who spent significant time touring the state’s 99 counties and scored the endorsement of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R).
Haley is primed for a strong performance in New Hampshire, where she’s backed by state Gov. Chris Sununu (R).
“She’s the one candidate in these early states that has a chance to break though,” Merrill said. “We’ll see what she does with these seven days, but I don’t think Iowa changes her trajectory here at all.”
An Emerson College Polling/WHDH New Hampshire survey released last week found Haley with 28 percent support among Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, up from 18 percent in November and well ahead of DeSantis’s 7 percent.
But she’s still 16 points behind Trump, who won 44 percent support in the poll — 5 percentage points less than what he scored in November.
The latest polling averages from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ put Trump at around 41 percent support, with Haley at 33 and DeSantis at 6.
Haley may need a victory in New Hampshire to give herself a real chance of winning the GOP nomination.
“I think right now we’re at the beginning. It could very well be the end,” said Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett. “If Nikki, or Ron for that matter, can make it competitive in New Hampshire, then you have a chance at a race.”
Haley is well behind Trump in polls in her home state of South Carolina, which holds its primary on Feb. 24.
“It’s a very narrow path for anyone not named Trump,” Bartlett said.
Last week, Haley and DeSantis were the only two candidates to participate in a CNN-hosted debate in Des Moines. ABC and CNN have both announced plans to host GOP presidential debates in New Hampshire, but Haley’s announced intention to skip them unless Trump agrees to participate could leave DeSantis on his own.
“Anything is possible in New Hampshire. But it ain’t easy,” Bartlett said.
“Make no mistake, it’s still a very steep, snowy mountain to climb here in New Hampshire. She’s got some granite heels, but it’s gonna take everything she’s got and then more.”