Gallego leads Lake, Sinema in Arizona Senate race: Poll

Update March 5, 2024:  Sinema won’t run for reelection in Arizona

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) leads Republican Kari Lake and Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) in a hypothetical three-way race for Sinema’s seat, according to a new poll. 

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found Gallego leading by 6 points, with 36 percent support to 30 percent for Lake and 21 percent for Sinema, while 13 percent were undecided. In a head-to-head match-up between Gallego and Lake, Gallego’s lead expands to 7 points, 46 percent to 39 percent, with 15 percent undecided. 

Gallego and Lake seem most likely to become their parties’ respective nominees for what will be a hotly contested seat in the fall. Gallego is the only major candidate running for the Democratic nomination, while Lake, the GOP Arizona gubernatorial nominee from 2022, has coalesced most of the Republican establishment support behind her. 

Sinema, who was initially elected to the seat as a Democrat but left the party to become an independent in 2022, has not said if she will seek another term in the Senate. 

Pollsters found a plurality of both men and women prefer Gallego over his potential competitors, but the five-term congressman’s lead is somewhat more comfortable with women. In the one-on-one match-up with Lake, Gallego leads by 11 points among women but only by 2 points among men.

In the three-way race, Gallego has 38 percent support among women, to Lake’s 29 percent and Sinema’s 18 percent. He has 34 percent support among men, while Lake has 31 percent and Sinema has 24 percent.

The poll found immigration was considered the most important issue for the respondents, with 31 percent saying so. The economy came in second at 20 percent, followed by housing affordability at 11 percent and education at 10 percent. 

Pollsters also found former President Trump leading President Biden slightly in a hypothetical general election match-up by 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent, with 12 percent undecided. 

The poll was conducted Feb. 16-19 among 1,000 registered voters. The credibility interval was 3 percentage points.