Former Vice President Joe Biden is not only leading the field of Democratic presidential contenders in polls, he’s also leading in another vital tool to evaluate races: prediction and betting markets.
A look at three major prediction and betting markets shows Biden with a substantial lead to win the Democratic nomination, followed by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) and Kamala Harris (Calif.), as well as South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
{mosads}That order roughly reflects the standing of the Democratic contenders in polls — except for one surprise: tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang, who places highly in each of the betting markets, far above where he stands in traditional surveys.
The Hill will take a look at these three markets before and after each of the Democratic debates, to show how perceptions have shifted among people willing to bet money on candidates.
Here’s where candidates currently rank, just hours before the first debate is set to kick off on Wednesday evening. A second debate will follow on Thursday:
PREDICTIT
The platform is the most popular political prediction market. Modeled like a stock market, participants bet on whether the candidate will, or will not, become the nominee — a decision that can increase or decrease the value assigned to each candidate.
26 cents: Biden
22 cents: Warren
15 cents: Sanders
14 cents: Yang
13 cents: Buttigieg
12 cents: Harris
5 cents: Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.), former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (Texas)
4 cents: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii)
2 cents: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.)
1 cent: Sen. Michael Bennet (Colo.), Reps. Tim Ryan (Ohio) and Eric Swalwell (Calif.), Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, former Rep. John Delaney (Md.), author Marianne Williamson, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio
BOVADA*
Bovada uses more traditional betting odds, like the ones for sporting events. Numbers reflect potential gains, with favorite candidates returning less than those seen as long-shot candidates.
+200: Biden
+400: Buttigieg
+450: Sanders
+550: Harris
+700: Warren
+1,200: Yang
+1,800: O’Rourke
+3,000: Gabbard
+3,300: Booker
+4,000: Klobuchar
+8,000: Castro, Gillibrand
* A previous version of this story used Bovada’s chances of winning the presidency, but it has been updated to reflect the odds of winning the nomination.
BETONLINE
BetOnline uses the same odds system as Bovada.
+175: Biden
+350: Warren
+500: Buttigieg
+800: Sanders, Harris
+1,000: Yang
+2,500: O’Rourke
+3,300: Booker
+5,000: Gillibrand, Castro, Klobuchar, Gabbard
+10,000: Hickenlooper, Delaney, Ryan, de Blasio, Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass.), Bullock, Inslee, Swalwell, Bennet
— Updated at 3:15 p.m.