Moreno leads Ohio GOP Senate primary by 9 points ahead of election: Survey

Bernie Moreno, a businessman backed by former President Trump, holds a 9-point lead in the Republican Senate primary in Ohio, according to a poll released a day ahead of Tuesday’s election.

The final Emerson College poll of likely GOP voters, conducted Sunday and Monday, shows Moreno with 38 percent support — topping state Sen. Matt Dolan, who has 29 percent support.

Only 12 percent in the survey back Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who has seen a gradual decline in support since January, when he had 21 percent behind him. An early March poll showed LaRose with 16 percent support; he has little financial firepower to keep up with Dolan and Moreno, who are self-funding their campaigns.

Moreno has seen a sizable jump in support since earlier this month, increasing 15 points. The poll was conducted after Trump traveled to Ohio to campaign for Moreno on Saturday, drawing media attention that likely boosted Moreno’s performance in the polls.

Pollsters noted the race is likely closer than it appears — it continues to narrow between Moreno and Dolan, while LaRose’s support diminishes. Dolan’s support ticked up slightly since the poll early this month, too, increasing by 3 points to 29 percent.

Among the likely Ohio GOP primary voters surveyed, 21 percent say they are still undecided or are supporting someone else.

Fifty-one percent of undecided likely GOP voters lean toward Dolan when asked whom they’re leaning toward, despite being undecided. When undecided voters’ leanings are included in the total, Moreno’s lead narrows to 4 points.

“Moreno’s lead over Dolan, 38% to 29% is accompanied by 21% of undecided voters, who break more for Dolan, tightening the race to within the poll’s margin of error, 44% to 40%,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement about the poll.

The Senate GOP primary battle in Ohio has grown increasingly heated and personal in recent days as candidates seek to clinch the GOP nomination to try to unseat Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

The poll earlier this month, conducted March 7-10, surveyed Democratic and Republican registered voters. The poll showed Brown leading all three candidates in hypothetical 2024 Senate match-ups.

The most recent poll was conducted Sunday and Monday and surveyed 450 likely Republican voters in Ohio. The margin of error is 4.6 percentage points.