Candidates face make-or-break moment in Democratic debates

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The second round of Democratic primary debate is expected to force a handful of struggling candidates to reevaluate their 2020 presidential ambitions, unless they can grab a breakout moment. 

Though there are about two dozen candidates running for president, the bulk of attention — and money — has so far gone to the top five candidates. The rest have largely seen lackluster fundraising numbers and are trailing behind in the polls, while clinging onto hopes that a breakout moment in the debate this week will revive or jump-start their campaigns.

The debates on Tuesday and Wednesday will be critical for these lower-polling candidates, giving them a last chance to stand out as they look to make the debate stage in September, under much tougher criteria.

{mosads}So far seven candidates have qualified, and those who make it will have additional time to plead their case with primary voters.

But candidates who do not make it in the fall could see the beginning of the end of their presidential bids as fundraising could dry up and they could find themselves struggling to climb in the polls.

“If you don’t make the September debate stage, then it’s going to be really hard to rebound from that,” former Democratic National Committee (DNC) official Deshundra Jefferson said in an interview with The Hill. 

Jefferson said a breakout moment in Tuesday and Wednesday’s debates will prove to be essential in reaching the threshold in polling and fundraising for the fall debates. 

“Some people don’t get their breakthrough moment, they’re going to have to seriously sit down, talk to their staff, talk to their donors, and see, you know, how long are you with me?” she said. “So I think the second debate really is critical for a lot of these candidates who may be struggling or may not have seen the numbers that they’d like to see.”

Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist and former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), said that some poor-performing candidates could exit the race as soon as August unless they see a substantial boost in momentum after the second debate.

“If people who are not having a lot of luck fundraising and are less than 2 percent in the polls, I think that if they don’t see a concerted bump, you’re going to see in the dog days of August, before Labor Day, a lot of people dropping out,” he said.

Brad Bannon, another Democratic strategist, said that voters were starting to narrow their view of the candidates, which could make it harder for lower-tier contenders to gain the momentum they’ll need to sustain their campaigns.

“Democratic primary voters are definitely in the process of making some cut decisions about the candidates,” he said. “It seems to me you got two separate races going on here: One race between Sanders and Warren for the progressive wing, then you have a separate race going on between Biden, Harris and Mayor Pete [Buttigieg] for the pragmatic liberal wing of the party.”

Candidates have already begun to announce that they have qualified for the third and fourth set of debates. 

Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), who is in need of a breakout performance in the debates, announced Monday that he had met the donor threshold for the third and fourth debates. 

He joins former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas).

However, the risk is higher for long-shot candidates like former Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.) and author Marianne Williamson who have struggled to gain traction in the polls and fundraising. 

Not all strategists are sold on the idea that a breakout moment will determine a candidate’s decision to drop out and instead say the decision is based mostly on fundraising. 

“I don’t think anyone drops until they’re completely out of money,” Kelly Dietrich, the founder of the National Democratic National Training Committee, told The Hill.  “There’s no downside for staying in longer. So it may be after the first couple of primaries.” 

Still, 10 hopefuls are spending money at a faster pace than they are bringing it in, according to an analysis of the candidates’ most recent federal filings.

Delaney, for instance, spent more than seven times as much as he raised in the second quarter, though his campaign’s finances are padded by substantial loans from the candidate himself. In that same period, Gillibrand dropped nearly twice as much as she brought in.

Despite some concerns over the size of the field, most strategists say the wide array of candidates benefits general sentiment among Democrats. 

“I think coming out of ’16, we needed to have more choices, not to say that this field isn’t huge,” Jefferson said. 

Dietrich said the field’s size makes it more difficult for President Trump and Republicans to home in on one candidate in particular, like Hillary Clinton in 2016. 

“If we only had one, the nominee crowned from the start, Donald Trump and the Republicans would be bashing him 24-7 and defining them well in advance of the general election,” he said.

“With a field this large, it’s very difficult for Republicans to try to define anyone, although we can see their latest tactic coming, it doesn’t matter who gets through, they’re going to call them a socialist.” 

Tags Bernie Sanders Cory Booker Donald Trump Elizabeth Warren Hillary Clinton Joe Biden John Delaney Kirsten Gillibrand Marianne Williamson Pete Buttigieg

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