RFK Jr.’s bump in polling fails to materialize after VP pick

When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. introduced his 2024 running mate last month, his allies expected a bump in excitement that typically follows a big campaign announcement.   

That bump hasn’t materialized.

The independent candidate is trailing President Biden and former President Trump by significant margins even after unveiling attorney Nicole Shanahan as his vice presidential pick, leading Democrats to wonder if he’s reached his ceiling.

“I don’t think Kennedy’s support in polls has much to do with him as an actual candidate,” said Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst monitoring the presidential contest this cycle. “It’s just based on dissatisfaction with the major party presumptive nominees.”

“I doubt what he does registers all that much with the public, and his VP choice is, politically, a total unknown,” he said. 

Kennedy, who is seemingly everywhere in the media these days, has had chances to change that over the past two weeks. Since announcing Shanahan, a millennial patent attorney and California mega donor, at a March 26 rally in Oakland, Calif., he’s made several cable news appearances. She was initially slated to appear alongside him during a Fox News hit, NBC News reported, but Kennedy showed up solo.

He’s been making the pitch that his campaign will get on every state ballot and that Americans unhappy with Biden and Trump will be able to vote for him and Shanahan as the third party option in November.

But Shanahan hasn’t argued that case much yet herself. Kennedy chose the 38-year-old tech attorney, he said, for her experience in emerging technologies like AI and has spoken positively about her track record on the environment and inquisitive mind. She boasts a compelling personal story, having grown up on welfare, with a hard-scrabble upbringing that runs counter to his elite family. She was also, presumably, chosen to round out his ticket in the gender and age departments. 

Following the launch event, one source aware of the campaign’s deliberations around the VP search said his choice is likely to offer momentum after voters get a chance to learn more about Shanahan’s background. 

“There’s not a lot known about her. They’ve got a real opportunity to introduce her to the rest of the country in a pretty spectacular fashion,” the source said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the thinking around the decision. 

Shanahan, the source said, is someone who has had “the whole deck stacked against her” and has ascended to become “a living embodiment of this American dream that is evaporating for so many people.”

“I think it’s going to resonate with a large swath of the electorate,” the source said. 

But polling so far suggests Shanahan hasn’t done much to elevate Kennedy’s campaign. A Decision Desk HQ/The Hill average of polls looking at a three-way race between Kennedy, Trump and Biden has found little significant movement for the Independent candidate.

In a three-way match-up, Trump currently holds a narrow lead over Biden, 42 percent to 41 percent. Kennedy trails at a distant third with 8 percent.

Polls released since the Shanahan announcement vary widely, but none shows him coming close to 20 percent, which has been his rough ceiling since announcing his candidacy. An Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday showed him with 8 percent, a marginal bump from the 6 percent he received in the same survey in March. In both polls, Trump held a narrow lead over Biden.

The lack of a polling surge comes after Kennedy allies hyped his vice-presidential announcement for days prior to the announcement, with some speculating the candidate could pick controversial NFL star Aaron Rodgers.

In the end, however, Kennedy picked Shanahan, a well-known name in Silicon Valley but an unknown quantity to most Americans.

Shanahan gained a degree of national prominence after marrying Google co-founder Sergey Brin, now her ex-husband, which provided access to the type of wealth that can be useful in her first joint foray into national politics. 

Arguably the biggest barrier to general election success for the pair comes over their push to collect signatures and prepare for any potential legal challenges that may arise at the state level.

“Now that money is not an issue, it changes the whole game,” the pro-Kennedy source said optimistically. 

Democrats, however, are publicly questioning what role Shanahan will play in the campaign. Strategists are paying extra close attention to Kennedy’s bid, noting that his money woes have changed considerably and flooding the zone with opposition research.

Some Democratic operatives note that increases in media coverage of Kennedy — with or without Shanahan — creates more challenges for him. He has faced intense scrutiny, for example, after his campaign sent out an email soliciting money while calling Jan. 6 participants “activists,” which a spokesperson later said was unintentional.

“Getting more news coverage last week meant he had to spend more time defending his Trumpian position on Jan. 6, and explaining why his campaign staff openly acknowledged that they are trying to help Trump win,” said Josh Schwerin, a Democratic campaign strategist. 

Shanahan, too, has had some of her previous comments examined more closely after being announced as Kennedy’s vice-presidential choice. Democrats attacked her stance on IVF, in which she said earlier this year that it was “one of the biggest lies that’s being told about women’s health today,” according to the Australian Financial Review.

“Shanahan’s history of attacks on IVF are wildly unpopular and further demonstrate how extreme the RFK Jr. ticket really is,” Schwerin said.

Some observers warn not to put too much precedent on polling, especially amid concerns among Democrats that Trump allies are seeking to boost him in a presumed effort to help the former president.

“I’m not sure we can really trust the validity of any RFK-related polls right now, especially when we know that the Trump campaign is doing everything they can to prop up his candidacy,” said Hassan Martini, a progressive Democratic strategist who leads the group No Dem Left Behind. 

“I rely much more on primary research based off the hundreds of conversations I have weekly with independent voters,” Martini said. “Very of few of them ever bring up RFK. When he is brought up it is always followed with what has he ever done that makes qualified to think he can be president aside from his last name.”

Shanahan, meanwhile, has hinted she soon will play a larger role in the campaign.

“While Bobby’s out there spreading our message on TV right now, I’m working behind the scenes to make sure we’re on the ballot in all 50 states,” Shanahan wrote on the social platform X. “I’m also traveling the country speaking with Americans about the most pressing issues we’re facing. I can’t wait to share with you all soon.” 

While Kennedy’s team works towards their ballot access goal, Democrats are seeking to highlight the ways in which they believe Kennedy is aligned with Trump.

This week, Kennedy’s campaign director publicly clarified their goal of winning the White House after a consultant they hired for their New York ballot access effort said that Trump supporters share a “mutual enemy” in Biden. 

“It is one thing to be an internet conspiracy theorist,” said Democratic strategist Doug Gordon. “It is another thing to do it on the national stage as a presidential candidate. It is clear this is not a candidate or a campaign that is ready for prime time.”

“Kennedy’s been trading on his family name, and the support of Trump donors, to get to the point he is at in polling,” he said.