Biden, Trump now tied in Decision Desk HQ aggregate poll

President Biden and former President Trump are now neck and neck, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) latest average of polls, released Wednesday.

The two rivals are tied at 45.1 percent, based on DDHQ’s average of 658 polls pitting the two against each other in a likely 2024 match-up.

Prior to Wednesday, Trump’s lead over Biden was narrowing and the former president still held at a 0.6 percentage point lead during the day Tuesday. A poll from Echelon Insights showed Biden with a 3-point lead over Trump by Tuesday evening.

Other recent polls include a New York Times/Siena College poll that showed Trump leading by just 1 point, an ActiVote poll showing Trump leading by 6 points, and an Ipsos poll that showed Biden leading by 4 points.

Biden and Trump have seen various tied polls in recent days; Morning Consult polls from early April and mid-March both showed them each at 43 percent, and a Mainstreet Research poll from March showed them tied at 44 percent.

When Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included in polling, Trump has a 0.5 point lead in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill average of polls. The 120 polls included in the average show Trump at 42.1 percent, Biden at 41.6 percent and Kennedy at 7 percent.

The Biden-Trump tie also comes as the incumbent’s approval rating ticked up to a five-month high Monday. Biden, according to the The Hill/DDHQ’s poll average, has a 41.3 percent average approval rating.

Biden has struggled for months to improve his rating and take a lead over Trump in polling, especially in battleground states that were critical to his 2020 win. 

Trump is holding a 3.4 percentage point lead over the president in Michigan and a 1 percentage point lead in Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Biden has a 0.2 percentage point lead over Trump in Pennsylvania.